CPC Energy Roundup: October 30, 2026

In this edition of the Caspian Policy Center’s Energy Roundup, we review outcomes from Turkmenistan’s 2026 Oil and Gas Conference in Ashgabat. Also, in the news, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and business delegates visited Uzbekistan, while a Central Asian gas network proposal was discussed at the Central Asia Oil and Gas Forum in Tashkent. Recent publications at CPC examine the potential of Armenia and Azerbaijan to normalize relations through electricity trade and from the Azerbaijan International Investment Forum (AIIF).

Spotlight: Industrial Insights: Outcomes of Turkmenistan’s 2026 Oil and Gas Conference

By Kurtis Yan

Turkmenistan is open for business and is continuing to serve as a center for natural gas and oil from both a market perspective and on the basis of new initiatives. This idea was reinforced during the 31st International Conference and Exhibition Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan (OGT 2026) in Ashgabat, October 21-23. 

Efgan Nifti, the President and CEO of the Caspian Policy Center, attended the OGT 2026. Nifti remarked on the high level of attendance from a diverse pool of countries and companies. More than 1,700 delegates registered from over 450 companies and 75 countries, according to the Turkmen Energy Forum. Nifti’s overall impression during the event was Turkmenistan’s perceived desire to improve its transparency for foreign investment and business cooperation, along with the country’s overall transformation.

During the conference, new insights were shared on energy cooperation and the progress of projects in development, along with two memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and three contracts on further exploration, extraction, pipe materials, and infrastructure modernization. These agreements further solidify Turkmenistan’s role as a key energy supplier and potential gateway for hydrocarbon sales to new markets.

The turnout for OTG 2026 and discussions on improving international energy cooperation, provide strong backing for it to diversify its supply chains. Panel discussions involved policymakers and industry representatives. A key takeaway was from the General Manager of Turkish company BOTAŞ, Abdulvahit Fidan, who stated that the Turkish entity is ready to help deliver Turkmenistan’s gas to Europe. 

Turkmenistan maintains a vital role in global gas markets, but 90% of its production is directed to China, and Beijing leads its gas field development. If Ashgabat hopes to secure greater diversity in its clients and thereby improve its sovereignty and economic independence, it could look to capitalize on continual interest from foreign companies, particularly Western entities.

Read the full analysis here

Energy in the News

 

Source: state.gov

1. U.S. and Central Asian Foreign Ministers Prioritize the Middle Corridor and Critical Minerals  

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Samarkand on October 19 for a C5+1 ministerial meeting. Their discussions emphasized critical minerals, energy, industrial cooperation, cybersecurity, and the development of the Trans-Caspian / Middle Corridor trade route. The six governments supported investment in infrastructure and more efficient customs procedures to improve access to international markets while diversifying routes that currently depend heavily on Russia. Rubio’s visit also produced a significant bilateral announcement: Uzbekistan and the United States reported new agreements worth $12 billion, covering multiple sectors, including mining, energy, transportation, and technology.

Source: Reuters, Euronews, President of Uzbekistan  

2. A Proposed $5 Billion Central Asian Gas Network Aims to Improve Regional Energy Security  

A proposal discussed at the Central Asia Oil and Gas Forum in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, would connect the gas transmission systems of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Dubbed the “Central Asia Gas Ring,” the concept envisages more than 3,000 kilometers of new and upgraded pipelines, with an estimated cost of $5 billion and a potential annual throughput of around 20 billion cubic meters. The proposal seeks to address a longstanding regional mismatch: Turkmenistan has substantial gas resources, while other Central Asian countries face seasonal supply pressures, infrastructure constraints, or dependence on imports. A more integrated network could allow countries to redirect supplies during winter demand peaks and improve the use of existing pipelines, as well as create additional regional markets for Turkmenistan’s gas. 

Source: Euronews

3. The United States Hopes to Bring Small Modular Nuclear Reactors to Uzbekistan  

Addressing the U.S.-Uzbekistan Business and Investment Council on October 19, Secretary of State Marco Rubio advocated for the addition of American small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) to Uzbekistan's power grid. Furthermore, he commented that the United States intended to help update Uzbekistan's electric grid and gas distribution network, which would allow Uzbekistan to meet its increasing energy demand. Secretary Rubio also spoke about opportunities for cooperation between the U.S. and Uzbekistan regarding critical minerals, agriculture, and financial technology, among other fields.   

Source: Times of Central Asia, Forth

4. Permanent Court of Arbitration Rules out $12B in Kazakhstan’s Claims in Kashagan Case Against Oil Companies  

The Permanent Court of Arbitration, headquartered in the Hague, reached a decision on October 21 to rule out $12 billion of Kazakhstan’s claims against oil companies that are part of the Kashagan consortium. However, the court did allow $8 billion in claims to move forward. Kazakhstan initially filed its case against the consortium over environmental violations and for compensation due to production delays, which it puts at $130 billion in lost revenue. The consortium owns the Kashagan oil fields and has overseen the development of extraction and production.   

Source: Eurasianet

5. Saida Mirziyoyeva to Lead New Fuel and Energy Investors Council 

The council will facilitate external investments into Uzbekistan for large-scale energy projects that require land, grid connection, and meeting specific standards. Commenting on the necessity of the Council, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev spoke frankly about current obstacles that hinder investment into Uzbekistan and stated that his greater involvement in attracting and sustaining investment became necessary because of those obstacles. The Council will be led by Saida Mirziyoyeva, President Miziyoyev’s daughter, who is also head of the Presidential Administration of Uzbekistan. 

Source: Trend, Gazeta

Recent Short Analyses

 

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in February 2026. Source: President.az

Power of Normalization: Armenia’s Goals to Enhance its Energy Security Can Strengthen Cooperation with Azerbaijan

By Kurtis Yan

Public- and private-sector representatives from Armenia and Azerbaijan convened in Lachin, Azerbaijan, on August 25 to further discuss the construction of new energy infrastructure to facilitate cross-border electricity transmissions. This was just the latest example of how Armenian and Azerbaijani officials have cooperated to discuss the issue of regional energy security and grid resilience. 

Azerbaijan is a net electricity exporter, and proposed cooperation is in anticipation of further grid instability in the Caucasus and Armenia’s upcoming energy-intensive projects. As such, there is strong mutual interest in drawing upon the two countries’ electricity sector to normalize relations and reap economic benefits.

Azerbaijan’s largest state electricity producer, Azerenerji, has drafted plans to construct power lines and transmission towers to connect Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. The plans also propose a 330 kilovolt (kV) capacity new electricity substation along with transmission lines that will reach the Jabrayil substation.  This interconnected system would allow Armenia to draw upon surplus from Azerbaijan during periods of high demand. Beyond just Azerbaijan, Yerevan has also expressed interest in imports from Georgia, Türkiye, and Iran. 

Read the full analysis here

Azerbaijan International Investment Forum Nets Almost $11 Billion in Signed Contracts

By Liam Gibson

Nearly $11 billion worth of contracts in AI, energy, and manufacturing were signed in Baku on September 25 and 26 during the second Azerbaijan International Investment Forum (AIIF). Several documents signed at AIIF 2026 warrant particular attention.

Azerbaijan’s state energy company SOCAR, France’s TotalEnergies, and UAE-based XRG have adopted a Final Investment Decision (FID) for the full-scale development of the Absheron gas condensate field in Azerbaijan’s sector of the Caspian Sea. Production is expected to begin in 2029 and should eventually reach about 17 million cubic meters of gas and 47,000 barrels of condensate per day, further strengthening Azerbaijan’s integration with established export routes through the Southern Gas Corridor.

SOCAR and ExxonMobil also signed a 50/50 Production Sharing Agreement to explore, develop, and produce unconventional hydrocarbon resources in Azerbaijan’s Middle Kura basin. The deal marks an expansion of ExxonMobil’s upstream engagement in Azerbaijan and reflects Baku’s growing interest in developing onshore unconventional resources alongside its traditional offshore oil and gas projects.  

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Energy and Vietnam’s ROX Group Joint Stock Company signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to explore new solar and wind projects in Azerbaijan. The document details a possible 600 MW onshore wind power project in Azerbaijan and a 200 MW solar power project in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. 

Read the full analysis here

Oil Prices from this Month