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Thirty years ago, the Soviet Socialist Republics became independent nations and quickly set out to build international relationships, protect their sovereignty, and safeguard their national security. For the last 20 years, the ongoing U. S. military presence in Afghanistan and the struggle between the Afghan government and the Taliban have had a profound impact on the security of the Caspian region and its relationships with the United States.&nbsp; International forces departed Afghanistan on August 31, 2021, leaving the political and security outlook of Afghanistan in question, and by extension the stability of the entire Caspian region. &nbsp;The repercussions of this political, humanitarian, and military withdrawal loom large for the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus and have the potential to drastically alter the security outlook of the Caspian region.&nbsp; As this process plays out, the countries of the region will need to develop and employ decisive, creative, and cooperative solutions to both protect their national security and to collaborate with a diverse set of international partners.

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Caspian Security Conference

One year ago, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War took place, resulting in Azerbaijan regaining control of seven territories Armenian forces had long occupied as well as much of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, resulting in much of the Armenian population leaving the area, and a Russian-brokered cease-fire that included the deployment of Russian peacekeepers. That ceasefire remains in place, but there is no peace and no serious movement towards a peace agreement. While there have been some positive actions, for example, high-level talks on improving transportation connectivity and the return of some detainees and the provision of information on the location of minefields, border skirmishes and other incidents show the potential for renewed conflict.

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In light of this anniversary of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the Caspian Policy Center is gathering two former U.S. ambassadors to the region for an online event to discuss the outlook for peace and reconciliation, and steps the countries in the region, as well as the United States and international organizations, can take to help Armenians and Azerbaijanis build a more peaceful, prosperous, and stable future.

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To confirm your attendance and to receive a Zoom link to join the session, please email <a href="http://jcohen@caspianpolicy.org">jcohen@caspianpolicy.org</a>.

One Year After the Nagorno-Karabakh War: A Need for Initiative

Japan and the Republic of Korea have strengthened their presence across the Caspian in recent years, particularly through a number of cultural and economic projects. Additionally, South Korea is a growing destination for Central Asian migrant workers. While much has been made of China&rsquo;s investment and aggressive foreign policy in Central Asia, Japan and South Korea&rsquo;s substantial relationships in the region are too often underestimated.&nbsp;

 
In conjunction with the Caspian Policy Center&rsquo;s new policy brief&nbsp;titled &ldquo;It&rsquo;s Not Only China: Japan and Korea&rsquo;s Growing Roles in Central Asia&rdquo; we will gather Japanese, South Korean, and regional experts to discuss the growing roles of Japan and South Korea in the Caspian and their geopolitical significance. The discussion will cover Japanese and South Korean investment, development aid, and business in the Caspian as well as high-level political contacts between Central Asia&rsquo;s capitals and Tokyo and Seoul. The experts will provide their perspective on Japan and South Korea&rsquo;s activity in the region, possible future areas of engagement, and what these important relationships can mean for the United States and others.

Japan and Korea’s Growing Economic Engagement in the Caspian

Women&rsquo;s entrepreneurship is a pathway for equitable economic growth and gender equality. The government of Tajikistan has taken a number of steps to build a favorable environment for women to start and grow businesses. Yet, new stresses posed by global responses to COVID-19 require us to rethink how to best support female-owned enterprises amidst a global pandemic with gendered consequences.

For this event, we will gather regional and international practitioners and academics to discuss key developments in women&rsquo;s entrepreneurship in Tajikistan over the past three decades. The discussion will cover the legacy of Soviet policies and civil war on gender roles, the legal and social environments in which female-owned businesses function, and the impact of technology on entrepreneurship. The speakers will also share their insights on how to best circumvent challenges posed by the global pandemic, as well as suggestions for overcoming barriers to women&rsquo;s economic empowerment in the long run.

Join this CPC webinar as we discuss the accomplishments of women&rsquo;s entrepreneurship in Tajikistan and identify pathways to their further reinforcement and expansion.

Strategies for Inclusive Economic Growth: Women’s Entrepreneurship in Tajikistan

On December 25, 1991, the United States became the first country to recognize Kazakhstan&rsquo;s independence. The thirty years of the United States-Kazakhstan partnership since then have been marked by countless achievements across diplomatic, economic, and cultural areas.

For this event, we will gather four former U.S. ambassadors to Kazakhstan to discuss the key developments in the U.S.-Kazakhstan relationship over the last three decades. The discussion will cover milestones like denuclearization, the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, the development of the Tengiz field and the signing of the Tengizchevroil partnership, the embassy&rsquo;s move from Almaty to Nur-Sultan (then-Astana), cooperation following the 9/11 attacks, the inauguration of the C5+1 format, Expo 2017, and many other key moments. The ambassadors will also share their views on the current state of the U.S.-Kazakhstan relationship and what the next decade might hold.

Join this CPC webinar as we discuss the accomplishments of U.S.-Kazakhstan cooperation over the last three decades with diplomats who played key roles in guiding that partnership.

Thirty Years of Partnership: A Conversation with Four U.S. Ambassadors to Kazakhstan

Due in part to its strategic location at the intersection of Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East, the Caspian region has long been an area where outside powers have competed for influence. This is no less true today, with the region attracting considerable interest from China, Russia, the United States, and the European Union, as well as other nearby powers like Turkey and Iran. Central Asia and the South Caucasus are home to a vast wealth of natural resources and straddle vital east-west and north-south transit corridors. As Russia seeks to maintain its historic position, China expands its much-touted Belt and Road Initiative, and the United States sets its sights on reengaging with the international community, the stage is set for a renewed period of great power competition in the Caspian region. With effective foreign policy and an eye towards maintaining their national sovereignty while also developing their domestic economies, the countries of the Caspian region stand to benefit from careful and balanced engagement with their international partners.

The Caspian Policy Center has recently highlighted this increasing competition in its research work. In his&nbsp;<a href="https://www.caspianpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-Caspian-Basin-Why-It-Matters-In-Great-Power-Competition.pdf">January policy brief</a>, Major General (ret.) Michael Repass highlighted the strategic importance of the Caspian region in Great Power Competition. In other&nbsp;<a href="https://www.caspianpolicy.org/russias-historical-defense-ties-and-chinas-rising-military-presence-in-central-asia/">recent policy briefs</a>, we have surveyed the status of Chinese, Russian, European, and American power in Central Asia, and assessed the capabilities of the Russian and Chinese militaries in the region. At this event we will delve further into these topics with experts from the diplomatic, military, and academic communities to better understand how the United States and Caspian nations can approach this period of competition in the region.

International Actors in the Caspian Region

With the COVID-19 pandemic having persisted over a year, the economic state of the world has shifted considerably. Working remotely has become commonplace for many; the impacts of digitalization and information technologies became even more apparent. Disruptions to global supply chains and questions about whether countries need to manufacture more at home came into international and domestic policy debates. At the same time, sound economic principles remained crucial to national well-being and prosperity. The Caspian region has been no exception to these global trends. As&nbsp;economies around the world emerge from the shocks produced by the pandemic, it will be&nbsp;important that the countries of the Caspian region, like those elsewhere, pursue sound policies as they reopen and rebuild.

&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Heritage Foundation&rsquo;s Economic Freedom Index&nbsp;provides indications of where countries stand in terms of economic policies that encourage growth, creativity and innovation, and greater prosperity. In a discussion with the Economic Freedom index&rsquo;s authors, the Caspian Policy Center will look at the results contained in this year&rsquo;s report, including why countries&rsquo; places changed in the rankings and what these findings may mean as countries of the Caspian region look for post-COVID economic transition.

Economic Freedom in the Caspian Region

As the Biden Administration develops policies for its relations with China, Iran, and Russia, it needs to consider how to engage more effectively its relations with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus. Often targets of ambitious neighboring powers seeking greater influence, leverage, and advantage, these countries on both sides of the Caspian Sea generally look for active, visible, and constructive engagement by the U.S. government as well as by American private-sector and academic institutions. Some of the Caspian region governments feel their ties with the United States weakened during the Trump Administration. The new Biden Administration is in a position to correct this situation and to advance U.S. interests in the region at the same time it addresses broader geostrategic questions.

The Caspian Policy Center has prepared a set of recommendations for more effective U.S. engagement with countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Looking at steps the United States could take in its diplomatic engagement with countries in the Greater Caspian region, in its information/public outreach and military-to- military programs, and in the spheres of economics and business, the Center has developed a roadmap for a more stable and prosperous Caspian region aligned with U.S. interests. In an online discussion on March 3, panelists will elaborate on the ways that the Biden administration can chart the best path forward in Central Asia and the South Caucasus in light of geostrategic trends and developments that have occurred in the region over the past four years.

A New Caspian Policy for the New Administration

On December 31, Azerbaijan started commercial natural gas exports to Europe via the U.S.-backed Southern Gas Corridor, helping the region to diversify supplies away from Russia.

Completion of the $40 billion Southern Gas Corridor marked an important milestone for U.S. diplomacy and European energy security as it was the culmination of several years of work with both public and private sectors, including different governments across the Caspian region, multinational energy companies, and several U.S. presidential administrations.

Alongside its vast contribution to the energy security of Europe, the completion of the Southern Gas Corridor also comes at a time of changing energy markets and increased focus on climate change.

On January 27,&nbsp;the Caspian Policy Center will bring together senior policy officials, corporate executives, and leading energy policy experts to discuss the completion of the Southern Gas Corridor project, how it fits with the evolving picture of the energy industry, and the possible next steps for the Caucasus and Central Asia&rsquo;s energy market.

This virtual event will be moderated by&nbsp;Ambassador (ret.) Robert F. Cekuta, Advisory Board Member&nbsp;at the Caspian Policy Center, and include keynote remarks by&nbsp;Francis R. Fannon, Former Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Energy Resources at the U.S Department of State.

Completion of the Southern Gas Corridor: An American Diplomatic Success, But What Comes Next?

The war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Moscow-brokered November ceasefire, and the presence now of Russian forces in all three countries of the Caucasus are significant events in a part of the world where Russian, Chinese, Turkish, and Iranian policy objectives can collide with each other as well as with those of the United States and European countries. Moreover, while the November agreement may have stopped the fighting, it did not create peace. At the same time, the process is underway in the United States of transitioning to a new presidential administration on January 20, 2021. In charting out its foreign policy objectives, the Biden administration will need to examine this new situation in the Caucasus and its potential ramifications for Europe and Eurasia&rsquo;s security, stability, and prosperity. The Caspian Policy Center (CPC) and the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) will convene a panel of experts from both the United States and Azerbaijan to discuss the future of U.S.-Azerbaijan relations in light of 2020&rsquo;s landmark events.

The Aftermath of the Karabakh War and the U.S. Presidential Transition: The Future of American-Azerbaijani Relations

Central Asia&rsquo;s scarcity of water resources poses critical questions for the region&rsquo;s future. As climate change leads to decreases in precipitation and higher levels of evaporation, Central Asia&rsquo;s water-intensive agricultural practices must be carefully examined. The region&rsquo;s unequal distribution of water and energy resources has often brought upstream and downstream countries into conflict. As water resources dwindle and demands for energy increase, addressing these issues will be vital to regional stability. With these threats growing by the year, cooperation on a meaningful level will be essential to managing the water resources responsibly and fairly.

The Caspian Policy Center will convene leading academic and policy experts to discuss the threats to Central Asia&rsquo;s water supply and potential solutions to these problems. The panel will speak about international cooperation in securing transboundary water resources, the relationship between energy generation and the water supply, and sustainable agricultural practices. This event is held in conjunction with the release of the Caspian Policy Center&rsquo;s Policy Brief, &ldquo;The Vital Resource: Water Management in Central Asia,&rdquo; which explores the precarious state of Central Asia&rsquo;s water resources and the opportunities it presents for cooperation.

The Vital Resource: Water Management in Central Asia

Since antiquity, Afghanistan has been part of what is now referred to as Central Asia &ndash; politically, economically, and culturally. The imperial contest over Central and South Asia by the Russian and British empires in the 19th century traumatically severed Afghanistan from Central Asia, with lasting and problematic consequences. Because of Soviet policy, in addition to severing historic political, cultural, and economic linkages between Afghanistan and Central Asia, Afghanistan was psychologically separated as well; with Central Asia being thought of as the five former Soviet Socialist Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This detachment has forced Afghanistan into a &ldquo;no man&rsquo;s land,&rdquo; with links to the Persian world, to South Asia, and to Central Asia, but belonging to none. The security of Afghanistan and its pertinence to Central Asia cannot be settled by the simple political exclusion of Afghanistan from Central Asia emerging from the demise of the Soviet empire. And neither can Afghanistan&rsquo;s economy or large population be ignored. To ensure the security and prosperity of not just Afghanistan, but of the post-Soviet Central Asian states, it is time to reintegrate Afghanistan into Central Asia.

The Caspian Policy Center will bring together academic and foreign policy experts to discuss the case for the full reintegration of Afghanistan into Central Asia. This event is held in conjunction with the release of the Caspian Policy Center&rsquo;s policy brief, &ldquo;Afghanistan as a Part of Central Asia? The Case for Reintegration,&rdquo; that explores the causes of Afghanistan&rsquo;s anomalous separation from Central Asia, why Afghanistan should be reintegrated into the region, complicating factors to this effect, and how they can be overcome. The experts will also discuss the United States&rsquo; role in facilitating this process.

Afghanistan as a Part of Central Asia? The Case for Reintegration

The Greater Caspian Region faces a rising demand for electricity from industrial, commercial, and individual consumers. Unreliable electrical supplies inhibit robust economic growth and present further challenges when attracting foreign direct investment. The need to improve energy infrastructure by incorporating renewables to ensure that private consumers and industries have reliable electricity for development is essential. The Caspian region has tremendous wind, solar, and hydropower potential that should be harnessed to meet these countries&rsquo; growing electricity needs. Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan possess large amounts of untapped renewable energy resources that would sufficiently meet growing electricity demands. Including renewables in infrastructure and energy discussions will be crucial to ensuring energy security and stability in a region long defined by its hydrocarbon wealth.

The Caspian Policy Center will convene experts from the renewables sector and financial institutions operating in the Caspian region to discuss the ways they can harness their vast hydro, solar, and wind, power potential. The discussion will cover the potential for renewable energy in these four Caspian countries and what still needs to be done to attain national renewable energy goals. This event is held in conjunction with the release of the Caspian Policy Center&rsquo;s Policy Brief, &ldquo;The Considerable Potential for Renewable Energy in the Caspian Region&rdquo; that explores renewable power as a vital part of the Caspian&rsquo;s future energy and infrastructure plans.

Unlocking the Renewable Energy Potential in the Caspian Region

Women&rsquo;s economic empowerment has proven to be one of the key factors in promoting economic growth, maintaining peace and stability, and ensuring an inclusive and sustainable environment. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has further highlighted the importance of advancing gender equality as women have been particularly vulnerable to disruptions in daily activities, especially in low- and middle- income countries. With more women than men being engaged in non-essential social services sectors, which have been heavily hit by containment measures, there has been a disproportionate loss of jobs and sources of income. As a result of the pandemic, gender digital divide is becoming pronounced with more women lacking adequate access to digital operations, which impedes their ability to engage in economic activities or transition to remote learning and working. Increase in family care responsibilities and unpaid household work has put an additional pressure on women&rsquo;s ability to pursue economic opportunities. In combination, all these adverse effects might pose considerable challenges for women&rsquo;s economic empowerment even in the aftermath of the pandemic.

The Caspian Policy Center will bring together international and regional experts and policymakers to discuss ways to advance women&rsquo;s economic empowerment in the Caspian region. Specific topics will include developing women&rsquo;s digital entrepreneurship and support for women-owned businesses, providing necessary vocational training and promoting education, and bridging gender divide in access to technology.

Women’s Economic Empowerment and Entrepreneurship in the Caspian Region

The Caspian region has become a hotspot for infrastructure investment over the last decade. With the region&rsquo;s strategic location at the juncture of Europe and Asia, and its wealth of natural resources, the Caspian has become a critical area for projects promoting global connectivity as well as local development. With its rising status as a hub for infrastructure investment, the Caspian is a region where the Blue Dot Network is of increasing relevance. With a gap between the amount of investment available and the Caspian region&rsquo;s anticipated funding needs to continue its development, the Blue Dot Network has the potential to raise the profile of projects that meet the Network&rsquo;s standards.

The Caspian Policy Center and U.S. Agency for International Development, in collaboration with the Embassies of Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan, will bring together policy experts from U.S. government agencies and private companies, as well as senior business representatives from the countries of the Caspian region. A high-level U.S. delegation, headed by Dr. Kaush Arha, U.S. G7 Sherpa for the Blue Dot Network and including representatives from the U.S. Development Financial Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, will lead the discussion on infrastructure development within the Blue Dot Network.

With a focus on private sector engagement, the event will explore the vital role the business community plays in strengthening regional integration through infrastructure and commerce. Using a roundtable format, the event will encourage dialogue and discussion between the agencies overseeing U.S. participation in the Blue Dot Network, government ministries in the Caspian region, and private enterprises.

Blue Dot Network: Building Strong Partnerships in the Caspian Region

Since it launched in 2019, the Blue Dot Network has provided a new angle to the current spree of global infrastructure development. What the Blue Dot Network intends to bring to the table is a trusted means of certifying the costly infrastructure projects that seek to revolutionize the rhythms of global commerce.&nbsp;With its goals of bringing together stakeholders from the private and public sectors to establish a shared framework for quality and market-driven global infrastructure ventures, the Blue Dot Network has the potential to help the Caspian region build a broad set of partners around the world. As the Network grows and becomes more defined, understanding it may be crucial to navigating the world of infrastructure investment and international&nbsp;development.

The Caspian Policy Center and the United States Agency for International Development, in collaboration with the Embassies of Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan, will bring together&nbsp;senior officials from the U.S. Department of State, U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and&nbsp;ministerial-level&nbsp;representatives from the Caspian region&nbsp;to&nbsp;discuss economic policy and infrastructure development implications of the Blue Dot Network.&nbsp;The discussion will cover the Blue Dot Network&rsquo;s development since its inception and how it might grow in the future to address infrastructure needs in the Caspian region.&nbsp;

A Policy Discussion on the Blue Dot Network: Quality Infrastructure and Capital Investments in the Caspian

Increasing regional cooperation between the Caspian&rsquo;s Eastern and Western shores is a promising trend for the region and the United States. Initially started with connectivity projects, this cooperation not only mitigates COVID-19-related trade disruptions but also emerges as a critical stabilizing factor in this strategically important region. This has also become a key conduit of U.S. assistance to Afghanistan and the latter&rsquo;s development. However, recent events have highlighted the urgent need for and value of strengthening such cooperation in light of growing challenges. The onset of COVID-19 pandemic coupled with substantially depressed energy prices put additional pressure on regional governments in light of the terrorism problem in neighboring regions, exacerbating global competition as well as existing and potential conflicts. In combination, these developments could cause large-scale upheaval in the regional security landscape.

The Caspian Policy Center will bring together high-level regional security policy specialists as well as senior representatives of the U.S. Departments of Defense and State to discuss the situation in the region. Specific topics will include sharing experiences and best practices in securing borders and societies during the pandemic, facilitating a more effective regional response to transnational challenges, and opportunities and need for bolstering regional and broader international cooperation.

The Caspian Region in the COVID-19 Era: Implications for Security Policy and Regional Cooperation

Defining certain foreign policies has been a topic of debate, discussion, contingency, analysis, and lots of writing. Think tanks approach these definition efforts from different lenses: historic, scholarly, functional, political, etc.

The Greater Caspian Region countries follow a foreign policy that was first labeled by Kazakhstan as multi-vector, which&nbsp;means&nbsp;to find a balance in its&nbsp;relations with Russia, China, the European Union, and the United States.

That said, due to&nbsp;today&rsquo;s rapidly changing global geopolitical environment&nbsp;and COVID-19-induced economic and social disruptions, it becomes increasingly challenging to balance foreign relations with multiple partners that have diverging regional agendas.

On July 30, the Caspian Policy Center (CPC) will bring together leading research think tanks based in Washington and the Caspian to discuss the current geopolitical dynamics of the U.S. presence in the strategically-located Caspian region.

A Think-Tank Forum: The United States and the Caspian Region

Price shocks, supply overhangs, complex international dealings among governments of oil-producing countries, cutbacks in planned investments in oil and gas production and exploration, a rise in competitive renewable energy production technologies, and corporate restructurings &ndash; the international oil and gas sector has faced a variety of challenges over the first six months of 2020. The continuing global COVID-19 pandemic is another factor affecting the sector directly as well as through its impacts on the global economy. Yet energy security has been and remains a critical factor in countries&rsquo; national security calculations and in the overall international relations agenda with the Trans-Caspian region playing an important role as a supplier and a transportation route for oil and natural gas.

The Caspian Policy Center will host a virtual panel discussion among senior government and corporate figures to look at current and expected changes and their potential effects. Particular topics will include the region&rsquo;s continued role in the global energy security picture and the impact the COVID-19 pandemic is having in that regard, the U.S.-Caspian and intra-regional cooperation amid the pandemic crisis, the current energy transition, and further utilization of renewable sources of energy.

Webinar: Trans-Caspian as a Global Hub for Energy Supplies, Security, and Sustainability

The countries of the Caspian region face difficult economic issues as a result of the global pandemic but can also use this situation to make decisions that positively shape their future wellbeing. The current difficulties are real; as the IMF World Economic Outlook 2020 notes, &ldquo;As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by 3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008&ndash;09 financial crisis.&rdquo; Governments have launched various fiscal and other policy responses to reduce the effects of the economic crisis. Global financial institutions and international organizations have initiated technical assistance and financial support to help countries recover from the economic impacts of COVID-19.

As challenging as the current situation is, governments and international institutions are also keeping an eye on how to position countries as the global economy reopens. Strong cooperation, coordination, and assistance on both global and regional scale will be important to the Caspian region&rsquo;s recovery as will policies based on sound economic principles. Steps taken today, e.g. to take advantage of the focus on the need to strengthen and diversify supply chains, will be crucial to Caspian countries&rsquo; effective recovery as well as to their future competitiveness in what may well be an altered global economy.

The Caspian Policy Center, in coordination with the Embassies of Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan, will bring together ministerial-level representatives as well as senior representatives of the U.S. government and international financial institutions, including the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and the International Monetary Fund, and foreign policy specialiststo discussthe situation in the region and prospects for recovery and resilience of their economies in the face of the pandemic. Specific topics will include the economic effects of the COVID-19 and sharing thoughts on concrete steps the countries can and should take for the region&rsquo;s economic recovery. The conference will be an opportunity to explore actions the countries and international entities can use to bolster cooperation, financial support, technical assistance and capacity building collaboration in response to the damage caused by the pandemic.

Events