Welcome to Central Asia in Focus, a newsletter offering insight and analysis on events shaping the region’s political future. I’m Bruce Pannier. In this week’s edition: Kazakhstan conducted a national referendum on constructing the country’s first nuclear power plant, the court decision in the controversial trial of Kyrgyz journalists is expected soon, and more.

In the Region

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Snub Russian Organizations

Russia’s attempt to induct Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan into two multilateral organizations in which the Kremlin has strong influence came to nothing within a 48-hour period.

On October 16, Kazakh presidential spokesman Berik Uali said that Kazakhstan would not be applying for membership in the BRICS group of emerging economies.

The organization was founded in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with South Africa joining in 2010.

Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates joined in 2024, and the group is looking to expand with more than 30 countries having submitted membership applications.

Uali said Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev received “proposals for Kazakhstan to join BRICS,” and Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Toqaev to attend the BRICS October 22-24 summit in Kazan.

However, Uali said Kazakhstan would remain an observer in BRICS.

He added that President Toqaev “has repeatedly highlighted the UN as an essential organization where pressing global issues…can be effectively discussed.”

On October 17, Russia announced it was halting imports of wheat, lentils, flaxseed, and other agricultural products from Kazakhstan due to quality concerns.

The Moscow Times connected the Russian import ban to the Kazakh statement declining to join BRICS.

On October 18, Akmal Saidov, the first deputy speaker of Uzbekistan’s Oliy Majlis, the lower house of parliament, said Uzbekistan would not join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

The EAEU currently has five members: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia.

Russia has been trying to convince Uzbekistan, currently an observer state, to become a full EAEU member for several years.

Saidov is the head of the parliamentary commission reviewing Uzbekistan’s possible membership in the EAEU.

“We carefully studied more than 1,000 different documents of this organization,” Saidov said, “and came to the conclusion that today it is in the interests of Uzbekistan to maintain observer status.”

Possibly alluding to the Russian ban on Kazakh agricultural products, Saidov added that Kazakhstan seems to have “received very few benefits from joining the EAEU.”

Why It’s Important: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are Central Asia’s two largest countries in terms of area, population, and economy.

The other three Central Asian states – Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan – are undoubtedly watching what Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are doing, and Moscow’s responses.

Russia, an international pariah state with a dwindling economy and dreams of again becoming a colonial empire, is becoming an increasingly inconvenient partner for Central Asia.

It will be interesting to see how this recent snub will affect Russia’s ties to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian states.  

Tajik Opposition Members Receive Severe Prison Sentences

A Tajik court has sentenced two members of the banned political opposition movement Group 24 to lengthy prison terms.

Following a closed-door trial on October 10, opposition members Suhrob Zafar and Nasimjon Sharifov were sentenced to 30 and 20 years in prison, respectively.

RFE/RL’s Tajik Service, known locally as Ozodi, cited two sources, speaking under the condition of anonymity, who confirmed the trial and sentencing of the two men.

Zafar had been living in Turkey since 2014 and Sharifov since 2015. Sharifov vanished in February 2024, and Zafar in March.

The first news of their whereabouts came on August 9, when Tajik Prosecutor General Yusuf Rahmon told a press conference both men were in Dushanbe and under investigation.

Tajik officials have not commented publicly on the trial, but Group 24 earlier said Zafar and Sharifov were being charged with using the internet to call for the violent overthrow of Tajikistan’s government.

Group 24 was founded in 2012 by Tajik businessman Umarali Kuvvatov, who had already fled Tajikistan by that time after a relative of the Tajik president forced Kuvvatov out of a business they co-founded.

In 2014, Tajik authorities declared Group 24 an extremist organization and banned its activities in Tajikistan.

Kuvvatov was shot dead by an assassin in Istanbul on March 5, 2015.

There is no compelling evidence to suggest Group 24 is anything but a peaceful, secular opposition movement.

Why It’s Important: Tajikistan’s use of transnational repression to deal with political opponents who have fled Tajikistan is already well documented.

That the Tajik government is continuing to engage in extraordinary rendition is disturbing, as are the harsh sentences against two people whose only crime is being government opponents. 

Majlis Podcast

The latest Majlis podcast looks at how officials in some Central Asian countries are pushing back against Russian criticisms of Central Asia and treatment of Central Asian citizens working in Russia.

Russian officials and celebrities are becoming increasingly bold and racist in their public views and actions toward Central Asians.

It appears tolerance for this behavior is running out in Central Asia and some officials are verbally responding to Russian threats and criticisms.

The guests on the podcast are:

• Edward Lemon, president of the Washington D.C.-based Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs; and
• Fran Olmos, a senior researcher in Central Asian affairs at Spain’s GEOPOL 21 Center and research fellow at the London-based Foreign Policy Center. 

What I’m Following

“Turkestan” Instead of “Central Asia”

Turkey’s Education Ministry announced it will replace the term “Central Asia” with “Turkestan” in the country’s school textbooks.

The move is reportedly being made to strengthen national identity and patriotism among future generations and foster closer ties among Turkic peoples.

The new terminology is likely to upset many Tajiks. While Tajikistan is a Central Asian country, Tajiks are a Persian people who are unlikely to appreciate being included in the designation “Turkestan” rather than “Central Asia.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to establish a bloc based on ethnicity that would have economic and political clout.

In 2021, Erdogan rebranded a grouping of Turkic countries that had existed in various forms for some three decades into the Organization of Turkic States.

These countries of Turkic peoples include Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, with Turkmenistan so far participating only as an observer country. 

Kyrgyz Parliament Mulls Stiff Fines for Slander, Insult

Kyrgyzstan’s parliament is reviewing a bill that would introduce large fines for slander and insults in the media and on social networks.

An individual could face a fine of up to 100,000 som (about $1,117) and a legal entity up to 200,000 som (about $2,234) for violations.

Member of Parliament Iskhak Masaliev pointed out people found guilty of corruption often pay fines of only 50,000 som.

Activists say the high fines are aimed at further stifling criticism in Kyrgyzstan, where authorities have been shutting down media outlets and introducing new laws to restrict reporting.

In 2022, Reporters Without Borders ranked Kyrgyzstan 72nd out of 180 countries in terms of press freedom, but by 2024 the country dropped to position 120. 

Fact of the Week

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Labor and Social Protection Svetlana Zhakupova said on October 14 that 15,000 Kazakh citizens living illegally in South Korea will be deported before the end of 2024.

Thanks for Reading

Thanks for reading Central Asia in Focus! I appreciate you sharing it with other readers who may be interested.

Feel free to contact me on X, especially if you have any questions, comments, or just want to connect about topics concerning Central Asia.

Until next time,
Bruce

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