In Astana, the Government of Kazakhstan signed an agreement with San Francisco-based Firebird to develop Data Center Valley, a massive artificial intelligence (AI) data center complex in the country's northeast for what is expected to be the centerpiece of its national AI ambitions. The agreements were signed at a meeting with Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, NVIDIA Vice President Rev Lebaredian, and Firebird co-founders Razmig Hovaghimian and Alexander Yesayan. The deal builds on Firebird's ongoing data center project in Armenia in cooperation with NVIDIA. Together, the two projects mark the Caspian region's bid to become a neutral hub in the global AI race and underscore Armenia's emerging role as the intermediary between NVIDIA's computing power and the region.

The project in Kazakhstan is valued at $10 billion, but the Astana agreements included no binding investment. They instead secured a Binding Term Sheet between state operator JSC Kazakhtelecom and Firebird, outlining the technical and organizational parameters of cooperation. The most identifiable commitment comes from Kazakhtelecom, which plans to invest $1 billion in infrastructure. State entities will provide power, cooling, and connectivity, while Firebird will finance the AI infrastructure, including the purchase of NVIDIA chips. The first phase, a 125-megawatt data center valued at $5 billion, is slated to launch in 2027, which Hovaghimian said would place "Kazakhstan among the world's top 10 countries in AI infrastructure." These developments advance Kazakhstan's broader ambition to become the region's digital and AI hub.

While NVIDIA was present at the signing and endorsed the project as Firebird's existing chip supplier, it did not sign the agreements. It serves, instead, as a legitimizing partner and the essential source of GPUs as the world’s largest chip supplier. The project envisions “100,000 state-of-the-art chips, including NVIDIA's GB300 and Vera Rubin,” according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Artificial Intelligence Zhaslan Madiyev. Because the United States tightly controls the export of these chips, the project depends on Washington's willingness to license sales to the region, making the deepening bond between the United States and the Caspian nations a strategic prerequisite to AI development in the region. 

Firebird has already navigated that requirement in Armenia. During Vice President J.D. Vance's landmark visit to Yerevan early in February, the company secured U.S. export licensing for an additional 41,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs for the second phase of its Armenian data center, bringing its total to 50,000 chips. Armenian leaders have spent years cultivating that access: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan built a direct relationship with NVIDIA dating back to 2019, and business leaders like Noubar Afeyan have helped build the trust needed to move tightly controlled American technology into the region.

Thus far, this trust has still not translated into outside investment. While phase two in Armenia targets up to $4 billion, the financing secured so far is almost entirely domestic. Phase one was largely funded by a historic $300 million syndicated loan led by Armenian banks. The remainder of the $4 billion cost remains unfinanced, with no outside investment yet secured from U.S. partners or NVIDIA. Deepening ties such as U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance's visit and the U.S.–Armenia Memorandum of Understanding on AI and Semiconductor Innovation, signed in Washington on August 8, remain essential to the partnership, but capital from these partners has yet to be realized. As AI infrastructure grows ever more expensive, further U.S. and NVIDIA investment will be decisive for development in the region.

Beyond financing, the region will also have to tackle energy concerns, which now weigh most heavily on Kazakhstan. The country has a history of electricity deficits and continues to import power from Russia, even as it aims to end these imports by 2027 as part of a broader effort to reduce its dependence on Russian infrastructure. At the same time, Kazakhstan holds immense energy potential, and project partners are optimistic. "If you do not have energy, you cannot build the rest. It is the foundation," Lebaredian said. "Kazakhstan has energy…in abundance and can generate even more; it is an excellent place to start."

Despite these concerns, the Firebird deal signals Armenia's pivotal role as a liaison for companies interested in the region and the Caspian region's interest in concrete steps toward AI development. Growing U.S. engagement in the region will prove decisive from here on, both in attracting the outside capital these projects still lack and in securing the chips that AI infrastructure depends on. If these states can solve energy deficits and cultivate a safe investment environment, the Caspian countries have the potential to serve third countries seeking the computing power large data centers provide while avoiding the U.S.–China AI rivalry. In this sense, the region's long-standing tradition of multi-vector diplomacy and neutrality among the large powers may prove its most valuable asset in the global AI race.