The invasion of Ukraine has cast a cloud of uncertainty over Kazakhstan's geostrategic positioning. While the country maintains its historical ties with Moscow and the benefits derived from economic cooperation, it cannot overlook the potential risks posed by aligning too closely with a state engaged in actions that elicit international condemnation. This was evident in the latest developments that unfolded during the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in Moscow, where Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev clearly enunciated Kazakhstan’s view of the economic union. Tokayev seemingly signaled his concern about the divisions arising within the economic union, especially in light of the Belarusian and Russian efforts to advance the political agenda of their self-proclaimed "Union State" on other member-states. 

On May 24-25, Russia hosted the summit of the EAEU, an economic union which comprises Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Heads of state and government representatives of the member-countries participated in the event that focused on the areas of cooperation within the EAEU. Speaking at a plenary panel among the leaders of other member-states, Tokayev commented on the “phenomenon” of the Union State, noting that “even nuclear weapons are now shared between Belarus and Russia,” referring to the newly signed agreement between the two sides to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. Based on these developments, Tokayev argued that there is a “different level of integration” among other member-states of the EAEU, namely Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, and raised some questions regarding this dichotomy. “We have to deal with this reality - how will we work in these conditions?” he emphasized. In this regard, Tokayev made it clear that Kazakhstan sees the economic union as an exclusively economic bloc, and that any other areas of integration should only be considered through the economic prism, per the EAEU’s foundational agreement that was signed in 2015. 

Several noteworthy takeaways can be drawn from President Tokayev’s remarks at the EAEU summit. In his remarks, Tokayev unequivocally expressed that Kazakhstan is pursuing an independent foreign policy, and that external actors will have no influence on his country's foreign policy direction. This was an important message to Russia, which has been attempting to double down on its efforts to re-align Kazakhstan to its political bloc, especially after the start of the war in Ukraine. Moreover, Kazakhstan plays a central part in the EAEU, and without its cooperation, it’s highly unlikely that Russia and Belarus will be able to move forward with their goals of increased political integration, at least under the aegis of the EAEU.  

Following the summit, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was quoted saying that if any other country wanted to join a Russia-Belarus union there could be "nuclear weapons for everyone." He added, "No one is against Kazakhstan and other countries having the same close relations that we have with the Russian Federation," ostensibly inviting countries like Kazakhstan to join the Union State. When asked about this by the reporters, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev declined Lukashenko’s offer for Kazakhstan: “I appreciated his joke. I don’t think there’s any need for this, since there are other integration arrangements, primarily the Eurasian Economic Union,” he responded. Tokayev further added that as a signatory of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Kazakhstan is not seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. 

It should be noted that this was not the first instance Tokayev has taken a contrasting stance towards Russia, calling into question Putin’s actions. Tokayev’s remarks during and after the summit should be interpreted as a warning sign directed not only towards Russia, but also towards other members of the EAEU, indicating Kazakhstan’s willingness to participate in the economic union only so long as its integration doesn’t become political. 

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Kazakhstan has faced the arduous task of striking a delicate balance between safeguarding its sovereignty and stability while ensuring its continued economic growth and regional influence. The invasion of Ukraine has disrupted Kazakhstan's longstanding alliance with Moscow, forcing the nation to confront a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. As Kazakhstan grapples with the complexities and uncertainties ahead, it must carefully recalibrate its alliances, seeking to preserve its sovereignty and regional influence while effectively managing its economic and security interests.