Trade in arms has been a pivotal factor shaping alliances, conflicts, and local dynamics, particularly in the Caspian Region. Russia has long played a dominant role in this region’s arms market. However, in recent years, especially following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s dominance has shifted.

The volume of Russian arms imports for Central Asia and the South Caucasus between 2021 and 2023 fell by 23% and 44% when compared to levels in the previous decade. This shift is even more apparent when looking at new arms deals signed, with the share of Russian arms in weapons promised by volume falling by 35% for Central Asia and 100% for the Caucasus compared with prior levels in the same time periods. This decline is a prime indicator of new security calculations by Caspian countries seeking alternatives to Russian trade, marking the rise of alternative security actors and suppliers such as Türkiye, France, Italy, and India looking to fill the Russian vacuum.

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