The December 25 crash of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 resulted in 38 fatalities among the 67 passengers and crew.  It has also raised serious questions about possible Russian involvement.  The Embraer 190 was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny in the Chechen Republic of Russia.  But after what Russian authorities suggested was a bird strike, the plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan.  Media reports cite emerging evidence and experts that indicate the aircraft was likely struck by a Russian surface-to-air missile, specifically a Pantsir-S1 system, while flying over Chechnya. 

Video footage from passengers on the plane show damage to the airplane’s control surfaces, while crash survivors reported hearing an explosion and experiencing shrapnel impacts before the crash.  Images of the wreckage reveal perforations consistent with shrapnel damage, challenging the bird-strike theory.  

Analysts suggest that the plane might have been misidentified as a threat amid active Russian air defense operations against Ukrainian drones in the region.  Images of the surviving fuselage contain puncture holes “consistent with the shower of shrapnel produced by a missile strike. Similar damage, albeit more extensive, was evident when pro-Russian rebels downed Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014.”

Compounding the tragedy, the flight crew's requests for emergency landing permissions at Russian airports were reportedly denied, forcing the damaged aircraft to continue toward Kazakhstan.  Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and NATO have initiated investigations into the incident, with international aviation experts participating. The aircraft's black box has been recovered and is under analysis to provide further insights into the crash. While Russian officials urge caution against premature conclusions, the accumulating evidence could well point to an accidental missile strike as the probable cause. 

This incident has drawn parallels to previous tragedies involving civilian aircraft and military engagements, underscoring the critical need for stringent identification protocols and communication channels to prevent such occurrences in conflict zones. However, Reuters and Azerbaijani press report that Russian electronic warfare systems were used to disrupt and paralyze the Azerbaijani aircraft’s communications.  This disruption may have caused the aircraft to disappear from radar within Russian airspace and only reappear in the area of the Caspian Sea.  According to Russian sources, at the time of the flight over Chechnya, Russian air defense systems were attempting to shoot down Ukrainian drones. 

Video footage of the airplane crash landing in Aktau show the rear tail of the plane breaking off, and another lengthy cell phone video shows the wobbly approach and crash of the doomed flight.  Unlike earlier, similar incidents, significant evidence related to the crash is available online through social media, including flight radar information showing the course of the flight and extensive evidence of the pilots’ struggle to control direction and altitude of the stricken aircraft.  Some passenger recordings showed internal damage to the flight as it was attempting to land.

The flight carried 67 people, including 62 passengers and five crew members.  Among those on board the plane, 37 were Azerbaijan nationals, 16 Russian citizens, six from Kazakhstan, and three were from Kyrgyzstan.  While both pilots perished, three crew members were among the 29 survivors.  Kazakh authorities reported that of the injured, “Nine Russian citizens were evacuated by air ambulance to Moscow for further treatment.”  Three Azerbaijanis and three Kyrgyz were reported to be receiving treatment in Kazakhstan, with four in the intensive care unit and one patient diagnosed in “extremely critical and unstable” condition. 

While Azerbaijan Airlines has indicated it will pay compensation to the families of the deceased passengers and to those injured, the larger question of causation and responsibility still remain up in the air.  Further compensation might well be expected, if it is determined by the investigating commissions that the crash was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile.  And, if Russia is determined to be culpable, the incident is likely to raise diplomatic, political, and security concerns.

Evidence that conclusively proves a Russian missile downed the aircraft would likely provoke Azerbaijan to demand accountability, including a formal apology, reparations for victims, and assurances against future incidents.  Given that preliminary conclusions from Azerbaijani officials indicate a Russian missile caused the accident, a Russian denial could lead to heightened diplomatic tensions and a serious erosion of trust between Baku and Moscow.  This distrust could affect ongoing cooperation in trade, energy, and regional stability.  

The crash also highlights the risks from military activities near civilian air corridors, prompting a need to redetermine risks of flying within Russian air space.  Flight J2-8243 was flying near Chechnya amidst Russia's ongoing military operations against Ukrainian drones.

However, the Russian military did not close its airspace to civilian aircraft, nor did it declare a no-fly zone over Chechnya.  Azerbaijan Airlines has now cancelled flights to Chechnya.

Air routes over Russian air space will become a subject again for the few air carriers that still overfly Russian territory and for their insurers.  Much will rest on the shoulders of the investigating bodies to answer questions and transparently determine causation, since social media coverage of the crash is already widespread and rife with theories and suspicions.  

While Azerbaijani officials have made statements that “no one claims it was done on purpose,”  there is an expectation that Moscow will accept responsibility.  However, Russia has not accepted blame for shooting down the MH17 passenger flight over Ukraine in 2014, nor did the Soviets admit to shooting down KAL007.  While Moscow could deflect blame to Ukrainian drone attacks in the region, triggering an automatic missile launch, there remain the issues of the plane being denied emergency landing clearances along with radar jamming of the stricken aircraft.  

Widespread popular perceptions in social media conclude that the aircraft was willfully driven towards the Caspian by Russian jamming in the hopes of it crashing and erasing all evidence.  Russia’s past responses to similar incidents were enabled to a degree by limited physical evidence and closed investigations. This time there is widespread access to damning evidence and already fingers are pointing to Moscow.  The issues of culpability, aircraft safety, and diplomatic relations between Moscow and Baku may well collide in the coming weeks.  With so many questions needing answering, it seems unlikely that the wreckage of J2-8243 will be cleared away any time soon. 

Photo: Flightradar24

Flightradar24 data depicting the damaged aircraft’s flight path over Kazakhstan.

Photo: @the_lentach

Cellphone footage just prior to the crash in Aktau.

Photo: Flightradar24

Passenger photo of damage to aircraft control surface.