After a highly anticipated and polarized election, Türkiye's newly re-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced his new cabinet—signaling what has the potential to be an ambitious new era of Türkiye's domestic and foreign policy. 

Two notable names on the list of cabinet appointments are Hakan Fidan, the former head of Türkiye's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) as Foreign Minister, and respected economist, Mehmet Şimşek, as Finance Minister. 

Stepping into the next five-year term, Erdoğan must face the realities of the crippling economic instability Türkiye has grappled with in recent years. The President's appointment for Finance Minister reflects his intention to make good on his promise to choose an economic team with “international credibility” to tackle the inflation crisis. Şimşek, who was formerly the Minister of Treasury and Finance and later served as Deputy Prime Minister from 2015-2018, is “highly regarded by investors” around the globe for his time in government and on Wall Street.  Şimşek’s appointment might not only be an attempt to regain the trust of investors but could also signal a more substantive shift—a return to more orthodox economic policies after years of economic uncertainty. 

During the previous term, Erdoğan’s government pursued an “unorthodox strategy” of cutting interest rates despite high inflation in an attempt to spur economic growth. As a result, the Turkish lira crashed at the end of 2021, leaving the government and central bank in Ankara scrambling to boost and stabilize the currency ever since. 

Erdoğan’s choice to place Türkiye's economic future in seemingly steady hands is especially critical after last year’s earthquakes sank the country’s economy into greater turmoil. The quakes resulted in $84 billion in losses—roughly 10 percent of Türkiye's entire economy in 2022. Inflation hit a stunning 85 percent in October 2022 and eventually settled at 44 percent in April. Still, experts have raised concerns that this has not been enough to ease the effects on cost-of-living. 

Despite the country’s economic tribulations, the nearly 100 senior-ranking foreign officials from 81 countries who attended the inauguration ceremony over the weekend are a testament to the significance of Türkiye's presence on the global stage. The attendance list included NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and heads of state of regional neighbors.

Türkiye's paradoxical approach to foreign policy renders both opportunities and challenges. As a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since 1952, Türkiye has historically maintained close ties with the West. Erdogan’s first term in office, which began in 2002, ushered in economic reform and a “zero problems with neighbors,” approach to foreign policy. 

However, in recent decades, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has worked to rebrand what was once a primarily Western-aligned foreign policy to one that is independently motivated and, at times, paradoxical. After 2015, Erdogan established a more centralized government that “sought to make Türkiye a regional Muslim superpower capable of guiding a new ‘post-Western’ security architecture.” Türkiye's military interventions in Libya and Syria, territory disputes in the Mediterranean, friendly ties with Russia and China, and restrictive domestic policies have tested the waters of its historic alliances. 

Nonetheless, Türkiye has continued to play a significant role as a geopolitical bridge between Asia and Europe, with influence stretching to Central Asia, the European Union (EU), the South Caucasus, and the Middle East. The most recent example of this is Türkiye’s mediating role in the Russia-Ukraine war. Ankara has pressed Moscow for peace talks and grain shipment negotiations over the last year and was even the first country to supply Ukraine with armed drones. At the same time, Erdoğan has made clear that he intends to maintain cordial relations with Moscow and his “dear friend” President Vladimir Putin by refraining from imposing sanctions against Russia. 

While Türkiye has received criticism for its refusal to alienate Russia, the NATO member’s ability to be a key mediator in the conflict as a result cannot be overlooked and such a delicate balancing act will require careful strategizing by the Turkish Foreign Ministry and its newly appointed minister. 

Dubbed Türkiye's “secret-keeper” by Erdoğan himself, the newly appointed Hakan Fidan hails from the intelligence world as an established figure amongst leaders in the international and global intelligence spaces and a close confidant of the Turkish President. Fidan is a strategic choice, given the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the delicate balancing act Ankara has maintained between actors with competing interests, including the West, Russia, and China. 

The appointment of the head intelligence official to the role of Foreign Minister is not only an indication that Türkiye's Foreign Ministry is posturing to reestablish a more active role in foreign policy, but that in the coming term Türkiye's foreign policy priorities are likely to center around security and strategic competition. Türkiye has demonstrated a keen willingness to play the field in an increasingly multipolar world—its continued ties with Russia and a warming relationship with China indicate that it will continue to do so for the remainder of this new five-year presidential term.

Despite the notable personnel changes, Türkiye has a history of continuity under President Erdoğan, leaving room for skepticism over whether the next five years will result in significant policy changes. Key cabinet seats are in capable hands—the question remains whether the new appointees will be granted the authority to carry out needed reforms.