Last year, Kazakhstan held a nationwide referendum on the question of building a nuclear power station. The idea received overwhelming support and Kazakhstan is now in the process of undertaking this ambitious strategic project. While the project is underway, it is not yet completed or operational.  Now is an opportune time to discuss both the timeline for the project and the risks and opportunities facing Kazakhstan as its first large-scale nuclear power plant becomes a reality.

I connected recently with Aldiyar Toktarov, Chairman of the Atomic Industry Development Association.  He shared his valuable insights on the “nuclearization” of Kazakhstan’s energy sector.

What has been happening since the referendum?

Toktarov noted that since the idea of building a nuclear station in Kazakhstan received such high public approval, the government has moved to create an international consortium to support the project.  The government of Kazakhstan has also begun an active dialogue with potential contractors. He said that in October of 2024 a Kazakh delegation visited South Korea. There they had meetings with large companies such as Doosan Enerbility, KHNP, and KEPCO.  Toktarov reported that the Kazakh and Korean representatives signed agreements on “localizing production of the equipment and preparing human resources” for the nuclear station project in Kazakhstan. 

Toktarov pointed out that the agenda for Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kazakhstan in November of last year included the issue of the construction of the nuclear station. In January of 2025, Kazakh representatives traveled to Russia to learn about the VVER-1200 reactors.  China has also become a key partner of Kazakhstan’s nuclear development. In December of last year, according to Toktarov, Kazakhstan had meetings with CNNC (China National Nuclear Corporation)). In addition to the South Korean, Russian and Chinese companies there are also French companies being considered as potential contractors. In December of last year, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan along with the Kazakh national companies held talks with EDF (Électricité de France), Framatome, and Arabelle Solutions. These companies are ready to support the construction of the nuclear station in Kazakhstan, and suggest using a European Pressurized Reactor. Turkey is also proving to be an ally in the journey to nuclear power.  The nearby nation, which has been successful so far with its own Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, is offering  Kazakhstan practices and knowledge that will assist the country in the "localization  of production” and the “strengthening human capital.” 

Toktarov noted that the Atomic Industry Development Association is working with the Korean and Turkish companies on educating Kazakh specialists.  They are also working with the International Atomic Energy Agency on implementing standards. Toktarov also shared that the Atomic Industry Development Association (AIDA) is actively developing international cooperation while simultaneously focusing on strengthening the position of the nuclear sector at the regional level. As part of this effort, particular importance is being given to collaboration with global industry leaders and the exchange of experience.

In December 2024, AIDA signed a memorandum of understanding with the Korea Nuclear Association (KNA), opening new prospects for knowledge sharing and the implementation of joint initiatives in nuclear energy. In January of this year, a similar agreement was concluded with the Nuclear Industry Association of Turkey (NIATR). The Turkish side, with its successful experience in implementing the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant project, offers Kazakhstan valuable knowledge and practices related to the localization of production and the strengthening of human resources.

Toktarov stated, “As the AIDA, we will actively work to ensure the involvement of all stakeholders in the project implementation process, aiming to attract the best international experts to Kazakhstan, which is one of the key objectives of our association. Additionally, international organizations, particularly the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will be involved in the project. They will provide additional oversight and expertise, further underscoring our commitment to the highest standards of safety and transparency. This project holds strategic importance for the country, and we are approaching it with the utmost responsibility to ensure its successful implementation.”

Would the nuclear station cover for the deficit of electricity in Kazakhstan?

According to Toktarov, Kazakhstan is projected to face a serious power deficit crisis. He remarked that even now Kazakhstan imports more than 1 GW of electricity.  Due to certain power stations not being at full capacity due to experiencing “wear and tear” from long usage, the electrical energy deficit will reach 25 GW by the year of 2035. 

Kazakhstan is planning to supply the power deficit using various sources of energy: coal, renewables, and nuclear. Coal still is the main source of power generation in Kazakhstan — it accounts for approximately 65 percent of the power generation.  Toktarov observed that it is very difficult for Kazakhstan to switch to other sources. He noted that the nuclear power station will have a power capacity of 2.4 GW (two blocks of 1200 MW each) that will cover the deficit of power in the south of Kazakhstan. However, even with such capabilities, the nuclear plant will be able to cover only ten percent of the anticipated energy deficit.

Toktarov explained that the coal stations are still appealing as power sources for the following reasons: they provide a stable source of power generation; they are affordable; they are relatively easy to build; and they utilize existing infrastructure. As well, Kazakhstan has enormous coal reserves that cover domestic demand and can even be exported to external markets. But, in Toktarov’s opinion, the environmental impact of generating coal-based power is becoming a significant problem. As for solar and wind energy, they are highly beneficial.  These sources, though, only generate energy during periods of high winds or intense sunlight making them intermittent at best.  They require support from baseload generation to be effective. That means, emphasized Toktarov, that in order to build more wind and solar stations Kazakhstan will have to build more baseload generation stations.

Having a nuclear station in Kazakhstan will not only help to generate more power and balance the energy deficit, but it will also assist in providing sufficient baseload generation for other sources of power. Toktarov stated that in the future, Kazakhstan might benefit from combining nuclear power with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. This would allow them to create a more reliable and efficient energy system by leveraging the complementary strengths of each technology. In particular, nuclear power could be used to provide baseload electricity while renewables could fill in gaps during peak demand periods, resulting in a more stable grid and reduced reliance on fossil fuels. This would open up new opportunities, Toktarov indicated, “to adapt to the changes in climate, minimize the negative environmental impact and strengthen energy security.”

What are the risks of the nuclear plant construction?

Toktarov thinks that the major risk inherent to the project is technological in nature. If it chooses an outdated or “irrelevant” technology Kazakhstan could face the risks of inefficiency coupled with low safety levels. For example, the power station of Olkiluoto in Finland has struggled with serious delays and overrun its budget due to the choice of new but not sufficiently tested technology. Toktarov indicated that Kazakhstan can learn a lesson from Finland’s experience, specifically that the country needs to choose not only modern but also tested and reliable technology.

Economic risks also matter, in Toktarov’s opinion. Overrunning the budget has the potential to become a huge issue. In France, for example, the Flamanville nuclear station required far more money than initially projected, a demand that was met with a strong negative public reaction. For Kazakhstan, which is already on a tight budget and struggling with a weak economic climate, cost overruns would be unacceptable.

Environmental and social risks are also factors that cannot be ignored, Toktarov noted. Lack of sufficient environmental testing and poor attention to the needs of society could significantly delay the efficient functioning of the nuclear station in Kazakhstan, in his opinion. When discussing this topic, he referred to the example of Germany, where strong anti-nuclear sentiments had existed for decades and were further reinforced after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, leading to intensified opposition to nuclear energy and the eventual decision to phase out nuclear power entirely.

Toktarov confirmed that Kazakhstan is indeed looking into the possibility of building several nuclear power plants. It is possible, Toktarov stated, that Kurchatov city (a location which has been historically linked to the nuclear industry of Kazakhstan) will become a site for another power plant. However, the decision on the potential locations for other stations will be made after detailed research, Toktarov indicated.

One of the main reasons to have several nuclear stations is in order to address the huge energy deficit projected to occur in Kazakhstan in coming years. According to the data of the Ministry of energy, in 2022 the deficit level was already equal to 1.3 GW. In the next five years it is expected that the deficit will exceed 13 billion kWh. The exacerbating factor is that Kazakhstan’s power stations are rapidly deteriorating, and the average “wear and tear” rate on them has reached 70 percent. This is a serious challenge for the energy security of the country, noted Toktarov. Such problems are prompting the Kazakh authorities to consider constructing several nuclear stations. The President of Kazakhstan and the government, according to Toktarov, are hoping that building a “nuclear cluster” in Kazakhstan will not just cover the energy deficit, but will serve as a driver for local industrial and economic development. Toktarov believes that constructing the nuclear power plants in Kazakhstan will be a catalyst to developing a range of industries and provide a huge incentive for local companies to invest in the new technologies and equipment needed for the nuclear stations. He mentioned that the Akkuyu project in Turkey has created just such a “multiplier effect”, led to an increase in business investment and resulted in the greater “localization” of production with 56 percent of goods made locally.  

Toktarov outlined that in order to successfully implement its nuclear project, though, Kazakhstan needs to solve several systemic problems. First, current Kazakh legislation should be brought up to date in accordance with international standards, including the issue of disposing of nuclear waste. Another, probably even more important problem, is the development of human resources. Toktarov indicated that Kazakhstan is lacking experts in engineering, physics, chemistry, and mechanics. 

“Safety, technical reliability, economic efficiency and ability of technology to match the country’s demand” are the main criteria that will be taken into account when choosing the contractor, claimed Toktarov. He also emphasized that “successful experience in other countries and the ability to meet national interests, international standards, and commitments” will also be a huge factor in the selection process.  As he noted previously, Kazakhstan is currently considering offers from the Chinese company CNNC (reactors HPR1000), Russian Rosatom (reactor VVER-1200), South Korean KHNP (reactor APR1400) and the French EDF (reactor EPR 1200). All these reactors belong to Generation III or III+ pressurized water reactors (PWRs), known for their high reliability and advanced safety systems.

Aldiyar Toktarov makes a compelling case for both the need for a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan and the necessity of adopting a thoughtful approach to the complex task of creating one.  Toktarov believes that the construction of the nuclear station is a “strategic project that will become a unique feature of the country.” Kazakhstan, he said, already holds a leading position in the world as a uranium producer. The country, he observed, now needs to take a step forward and begin developing nuclear energy. This will allow Kazakhstan “not only to strengthen its leading place but to move on to the higher level of technological development.”