Central Asia is gaining prominence on the global stage as major international actors intensify their involvement in the region. The region’s geopolitical importance has increased recently due to the Ukraine conflict, as its strategic location at major trade routes and its rich natural resources make it a crucial transit hub and attractive destination for securing critical materials. In the last year alone, the region has witnessed increased engagement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the European Union, China, as well as the United States. Japan is the latest country outside the region to seek an increased presence in Central Asia. While the ongoing war in Ukraine has enabled Central Asian states to maximize benefits by cooperating with a variety of partners, they have also continued to prioritize regional cooperation, as evidenced by recent events like the Consultative Meetings of Central Asian Heads of State and the Supreme Interstate Council of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Japan’s current dialogue framework with Central Asia was launched in 2004, with nine meetings of foreign ministers held since then. While the summit in the format of C5+Japan has traditionally served as a key platform for constructive engagement, this year, for the first time ever, Tokyo decided to take it a step further in holding the meetings at the highest level by including state leaders. Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was scheduled to visit the region August 9-11 to attend the summit in Kazakhstan and meet with leaders from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Despite the anticipation surrounding the summit, the Prime Minister's trip to Central Asia was abruptly canceled at the last moment due to an unprecedented major earthquake warning issued by Japan's Meteorological Agency for the Pacific coast.
Ahead of the planned visit, reports indicated that Prime Minister Kishida would express Japan's support for regional carbon neutrality efforts, propose low-emission technology from Japanese companies, such as advanced fossil-fuel power plants, and offer assistance in developing value-added exports like hydrogen and natural gas-based fertilizers. It was also mentioned that the Middle Corridor, a planned shipping route linking Central Asia and Europe, would be another central part of the summit’s agenda. Through these initiatives, Kishida was expected to announce Japan’s $2 billion economic support package for the region.
Although Kishida's trip to the region was canceled, the inaugural C5+Japan Business Forum still took place in Astana, Kazakhstan, on August 9. The Forum gathered over 450 representatives from the five Central Asian states and more than 100 major Japanese companies, with key participants including Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Marubeni Corporation Chairman Fumiya Kokubu, and Masami Iijima, President of the Japan Association for Trade with Russia and Newly Independent States (ROTOBO). Central Asian and Japanese companies signed 22 agreements in cooperation across various sectors, including energy and ecology, transport and logistics, digitalization, education, mechanical engineering, medicine and tourism. Among the key points highlighted by the speakers of the C5+Japan Business Forum was the need for both international and internal cooperation and “exchange of experience to achieve sustainable development and strengthen financial stability in the countries of the region.”
The increased priority of heightened regional integration was also reiterated at the recent events of regional leaders. The inaugural Supreme Interstate Council Meeting in August was a Summit between the heads of states of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan designed to highlight and deepen interstate cooperation. “Today, we have about 70 joint projects worth over $3 billion, which created more than 14,000 jobs. We are ready to further deepen cooperation in this area and create comfortable conditions for business,” said Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev stressed the establishment of a joint fund between the two countries for financial support of promising projects, with special emphasis on the mutual formation of markets and the elimination of existing restrictions in the sectors of energy, transport, and trade.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the leading advocates for regional integration, have reaped the benefits of increased cooperation. Over the last five years, bilateral trade has risen by 29%, reaching $5 billion in 2022, with Uzbekistan accounting for more than 57% of Kazakhstan’s total trade turnover with Central Asian nations. Recent meetings among regional leaders and within the C5+1 framework highlight that Central Asia is at a historic crossroads, poised to unlock its full potential. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have been leading efforts to enhance regional cooperation and open up trade and transport routes, aiming to boost both interregional collaboration and engagement with key external partners. Working with key global partners such as Japan can provide the necessary technical know-how in removing barriers for businesses operating in the region. Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, Central Asia has witnessed unprecedented levels of interaction, which can be achieved without compromising the growth of intraregional cooperation.
A second C5+Russia Summit, announced by Russia in early September, raises the question of what Russia has to offer that will be competitive with increased regional trade and the greatly expanded international attention in the region. Once the region’s undisputed trade leader, Russia is still a major trading partner with the region, but not on the order of a decade ago. Given changes to Russia’s own economy, will President Putin have the ability to match or surpass the Summit offerings of Japan, the US, China, the EU and others? As Central Asia connects through enhanced infrastructure and a developing Middle Corridor, the region seems bent on diversifying away from its former reliance on trade to the north and east.
