The unverified full transcript from the flight recorder of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 that crashed in Kazakhstan killing 38 passengers on December 25, 2024, was released by Russian media during the week of January 13. The transcript indicates that the pilots decided against landing in Russia, contrary to the claim that they were denied access. It also states that the crew claimed to have been struck by a flock of birds and that an oxygen tank exploded, although the cockpit crew might have been unaware of what caused the damage. Separate from Russian reporting, current preliminary evidence suggests that Russian air defense systems downed the passenger plane.  

It is uncertain how the Russian Telegram channel “BAZA” acquired the transcript because investigations are still ongoing. The conclusions drawn from the unverified transcript strengthen Moscow’s claims that it was not responsible for the crash or, at the very least, obscures the truth. Kazakhstan and Russia proposed organizing an investigative committee from the Commonwealth of Independence States (CIS), but Azerbaijan rejected the idea and demanded an international inquiry.

Excerpts from the released transcript appear to confirm that the flight was interfered with by electronic jamming, indicating both of the plane’s GPS systems stopped working. The pilot-tower communication also indicated significant damage to the aircraft’s control systems, which corresponds with social media footage from passengers inside the plane:  "...My plane is losing control.... Our hydraulics failed.... Steering control failed, using throttle sectors.... Firefighters, evacuators and doctors will be needed.... Oxygen is running out in the passenger cabin...there is a smell of fuel. Control surfaces have failed....” The pilots proceeded to try to make an emergency landing near Aktau, Kazakhstan.

President Vladimir Putin urged Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev to allow Russia to investigate the crash, but Aliyev has insisted that the plane’s black boxes are to be decoded in Brazil where the plane was manufactured.  The political fallout of the tragedy has highlighted Azerbaijan’s growing wariness of Russia.  On December 28, three days after the crash, Putin apologized for the “tragic incident” but offered explanations including the possibility of a bird strike, a gas cylinder explosion, or a Ukrainian drone as causes of the crash. After a second call, Aliyev recognized that the plane was unintentionally shot down but stated that “attempts to deny obvious facts are both nonsensical and absurd.” 

Changes in Moscow’s relations with its former Soviet neighbors in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have been notable since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The observable trend is that of distancing themselves from Russia as it continues to be bogged down by the war and increasingly isolated. 

Aliyev’s denunciation of Russia’s approach to handling the situation and calls for international investigations puts his mistrust of Putin on public display. This is a significant shift from that of cordial relations between the two leaders. Just four months before the Flight 8243 crash, Putin made a state visit to Azerbaijan and signed a joint declaration reaffirming the “friendly and allied nature” of the relationship between the two countries.

As the politicization of the investigation into the flight crash continues to sour Russia’s standing in the region, it will serve as an important inflection point for its neighbors to reassess whether Moscow is the kind of partner they want.