The announcement on August 3 that there were 100 days to go until COP29 (November 11-12) in Baku really brought home how soon the event is. The clock is definitely ticking. So, how are things looking?

In brief, complicated. The mid-year, Bonn get-together of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)Subsidiary Bodies in June was intended to assess implementation of agreements and to pave the way for decision-making by government bodies at the forthcoming COP29.  However, the meeting ended with little progress and with big divisions on the main issues. Perhaps this is true of all recent COPs, where key texts tend to be agreed in a blizzard of negotiations at the last minute. But the Azerbaijani Chairmanship – whose members have been travelling extensively in their efforts to reach out to a wide range of countries – have scheduled a flurry of get-togethers in the coming months to try to make breakthroughs. 

It’s long been clear that the top priority for COP29 is finance. The key aim is to agree on a snappily titled New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) as a follow-on to the 2009 pledge to provide $100bBper annum to developing countries by 2020 to help them reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. That goal was met only in 2022, but the aim now is that the NCQG should be substantially bigger. 

But who should contribute? Only the 43 “developed countries” listed in 2009? Why not the big carbon emitters like China (one third of all global emissions) and rich oil and gas countries like the Gulf states? And who should benefit? Only the poorest and/or most vulnerable, or a wider range of countries? Should the aid be in the form of grants or loans? And how does the NCQG relate to the Loss and Damage Fund agreed at COP27 in Egypt?

Perhaps as an innovative way through some of these vexed questions, Azerbaijan has announced the establishment of a Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF). The aim of this new fund – to be based in Baku – would be to take voluntary contributions from fossil-fuel producing countries and companies to invest in adaptation and mitigation projects in the developing world. As a start, Azerbaijan is seeking at least $1B from at least 10 countries and companies. Not a huge amount of money in the wider scheme of things, but perhaps a first attempt to requirefossil-fuel producing countries and companies to responsiblyhelp poor affected countries. Or – as some assert – is it a distraction that would allow these countries and companies to avoid formally acknowledging their role in climate change?

Another stated priority for Baku is finalizing an agreement on how to operationalize what is known as Article 6, a mechanism to facilitate international carbon markets and trading. As foractual emissions, strengthened reduction targets (known as Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) are not due to be submitted until early 2025, although the COP29 Chair is urging countries to submit them earlier. Azerbaijan – along with the other two COP Troika members UAE (COP28 Chair) and Brazil (COP30 Chair) – says it is working on submitting a 1.5 degrees-aligned target before COP29. At present, Azerbaijan’s NDC (35% reduction by 2030, 40% by 2050) is not highly ambitious, so it is hoped they will improve it significantly to show leadership.

Azerbaijan has also announced a wide range of initiatives in addition to the CFAF, highlighting the breadth and complexity of the issues that need to be addressed. One – a proposed COP Truce Appeal – is not climate-related and, while well-intentioned,is unlikely to make much headway. Another, the Baku Dialogue on Water and Climate Change, plays nicely to the issues faced by the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia, and could perhaps can act as a forum to promote much-needed regional cooperation beyond COP29.

So, it’s still all to play for, and Azerbaijan – as a member of OPEC+ and a previous Chair of the Non-Aligned Movement – has good links to many of the main players. But the reality remains that with Western countries facing significant financial pressures, and with the U.S. Presidential election taking place only one week before the start of COP29 the talks are certain to go down to the wire, and success could depend on who wins the U.S. elections.

 

James Sharp is a retired United Kingdom diplomat who served as Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.