Drone warfare has landed in the Caspian region.  Critical assets in global security and defense applications, this building trend has now reached the Caucasus and Central Asia, regions characterized by unique geopolitical dynamics and security challenges.  The influence of the war in Ukraine, where drones have proven remarkably effective against Russia's expensive conventional forces, has further spurred interest in unmanned aerial systems (UAS) across these regions.  Moreover, countries in these areas are increasingly investing in drone manufacturing as well as acquisition, not wanting to be dependent on other suppliers and spurred by local security concerns, regional rivalries, and economic ambitions.  

The reasons behind the rapid proliferation of drones in the Caucasus and Central Asia are many.  Part of the motivation stems from a fear of missing out as nations observe neighboring countries gaining significant advantages through drone technology.  Another key factor is the budget-friendly nature of drones that offer a cost-effective alternative to traditional military assets such as tanks and fighter jets.  The Ukraine war has also played a catalytic role, with drones proving their effectiveness in countering Russia’s expensive and conventional military forces, further validating their utility in modern warfare.

Adding to the UAS expansion is the influx of new drone manufacturing partners to the region, including Israel, Türkiye, China, and Iran, all of which have provided advanced technology and expertise.  However, the growing reliance on external suppliers has also pushed countries to invest in domestic production.  Many nations in the region are wary of being beholden to foreign suppliers, especially as traditional partner Russia struggles to fulfill arms contracts due to sanctions and resource constraints.  This drive for self-reliance has led to significant investments in local manufacturing capabilities, underscoring the strategic importance of drones in the regional security landscape.  In just a few years, all of the Caucasus and Central Asian countries have incorporated drones into their militaries and have also started manufacturing their own UAVs and UASs.  

Azerbaijan:  Pioneering Drone Use in the Caucasus

Azerbaijan has been a regional leader in the acquisition and deployment of drones, leveraging this technology to gain a decisive advantage in military conflicts.  During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijan’s effective use of Israeli and Turkish drones significantly shaped the outcome of the conflict, showcasing the strategic importance of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and their associated operating systems (UAS).  Israeli-made Harop and Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones were instrumental in destroying Armenian military targets, thereby altering the battlefield dynamics.  The October 2023 operation to retake Nagorno-Karabakh further underscored Azerbaijan's reliance on drones.  Reports suggest that Israeli drones played a quiet yet critical role in this campaign, continuing to solidify Azerbaijan’s position as a drone power in the region.

Armenia:  Building Domestic Capabilities

In response to Azerbaijan’s successful drone campaigns, Armenia has embarked on a mission to bolster its domestic weapons production, including UAS.  The country has taken steps to establish its own drone manufacturing capabilities, aiming to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.  Armenian officials have emphasized the importance of self-reliance in military technology, particularly in light of regional security threats.  This shift toward domestic production marks a significant change in Armenia’s defense strategy.  However, while progress has been made, challenges remain in scaling production and integrating drones into the country's military operations effectively.

Kazakhstan:  A Potential Drone Hub

President Tokayev has emphasized the need for drone capabilities, ordering the upgrading of his country’s defensive capabilities.  Kazakhstan also has ambitions to become a center for drone production in Central Asia, leveraging its economic resources and geographic position.  Officials have expressed interest in positioning the country as a regional leader in drone manufacturing and innovation. Recent investments in research and development, as well as partnerships with international firms, reflect this aspiration.  Kazakhstan’s efforts align with broader goals of diversifying its economy and enhancing its technological capabilities. The government’s focus on drones is part of a larger strategy to modernize its military and develop high-tech industries, creating opportunities for both domestic and foreign stakeholders.

Turkmenistan:  A Quiet Path to Drone Power

Although Turkmenistan is traditionally secretive about its military developments, it has made notable strides in drone acquisition and manufacturing. The country has acquired Bayraktar TB2 drones from Türkiye and showcased them in military parades. Additionally, Turkmenistan is reportedly exploring partnerships to establish local production facilities. Turkmenistan’s focus on drones aligns with its broader military modernization efforts. The country’s interest in UAS technology reflects growing awareness of drones’ strategic value in safeguarding national security and responding to emerging threats.

Uzbekistan:  Exploring UAV Production

Uzbekistan is another Central Asian country exploring the potential of domestic drone production. In 2023, Russia proposed a joint venture with Uzbekistan to set up 

manufacturing facilities. This collaboration could enable Uzbekistan to develop its own drone industry while benefiting from Russian expertise and technology.  Details remain scarce, but this initiative signals Uzbekistan’s intent to join the regional drone race. The partnership could also strengthen Uzbekistan’s defense capabilities and create new economic opportunities.

Kyrgyzstan:  Chinese and Turkish Partnerships

An early adopter of Turkish drones, Kyrgyzstan has turned to China to advance its drone manufacturing ambitions.  A Chinese company is set to build a drone production plant in Naryn, marking a significant step for Kyrgyzstan’s defense industry.  This development reflects the growing influence of Chinese technology in the region and highlights Kyrgyzstan’s efforts to modernize its military capabilities.  The purchases from Türkiye and the follow-on collaboration with China also underscore the strategic importance of drones in Kyrgyzstan’s security policy.  As the project progresses, it is expected to enhance the country’s ability to produce and deploy drones independently.

Tajikistan:  Partnering with Iran and Türkiye 

In May 2022, Iran inaugurated a drone factory in Tajikistan, signaling a deepening partnership between the two countries.  The facility focuses on producing Ababil-2 drones, which can be used for both surveillance and combat missions. This collaboration marks a significant development in Tajikistan’s military-industrial capabilities.  For Iran, this initiative expands its influence in the region while showcasing its drone manufacturing expertise.  For Tajikistan, the factory represents an opportunity to enhance its defense capabilities and reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.  The Iranian-Tajik partnership highlights the role of external actors in shaping Central Asia’s drone landscape.  Included in that calculus now, however, is a recent $1.5 million foreign assistance grant from Türkiye for Dushanbe for UAV, weaponry, and ammunition purchases.  

Georgia:  A Growing Drone Industry

The Republic of Georgia has also entered the regional drone race, focusing on domestic production capabilities.  In February 2021, a Georgian state-owned company announced the development of its first combat drone.  The initiative marked a significant milestone in Georgia’s efforts to establish an independent defense industry.  The drone, equipped with advanced surveillance and combat features, represents a step forward in the country’s military modernization.  The country has also been exploring collaborations with international partners to enhance its technological expertise.  Georgia’s commitment to advancing its drone technology was further highlighted in 2023, when the government unveiled a new generation of drones with enhanced capabilities.  These drones are designed for applications ranging from surveillance to combat missions.  The initiative reflects Georgia’s ambition to bolster its defense capabilities and self-reliance amid regional security challenges. 

Use of Drones in Regional Conflicts

The use of drones in active conflicts has demonstrated their transformative impact on warfare in the Caucasus and Central Asia.  Azerbaijan’s devastating drone campaigns during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war serve as a stark example.  Israeli-made Harop and Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones enabled Azerbaijan to achieve air superiority and systematically dismantle Armenian defenses, highlighting drone roles in modern combat.  This conflict underscored how drones can alter the balance of power, providing smaller nations with strategic advantages over adversaries.

Similarly, drones played a role in the ongoing tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.  Both nations used drones for surveillance and targeted operations along their disputed border.  During the September 2022 clashes, reports indicated that drones were deployed to monitor enemy movements and strike military positions.  This marked a significant escalation in the use of technology in what has traditionally been a ground-based conflict.

The role of Iranian drones in this context has also drawn international attention. While Tajikistan has been producing Iranian Ababil-2 drones, Iran reportedly asked Tajikistan not to use these drones in its disputes with Kyrgyzstan, reflecting Tehran’s cautious approach to the situation. This highlights the complexities of regional alliances and the potential for external actors to influence the use of drone technology in local conflicts.

Implications for the Region

The significant increase of drones and drone manufacturing in the Caucasus and Central Asia underscores the increasing militarization of these regions, driven by historical rivalries and security concerns. The widespread adoption of drones has the potential to reshape military strategies and alter power dynamics.  The growing emphasis on domestic production also reflects a broader trend of self-reliance and technological advancement. Countries like Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan are investing in local capabilities to reduce dependency on foreign suppliers and boost their economies.

The involvement of external actors such as Israel, Türkiye, China, Russia, and Iran highlight the strategic importance of the Caucasus and Central Asia in global geopolitics, as well as the potential for enhanced military sales.  These partnerships bring advanced technology to the region while deepening political, economic, and security ties.

It should also be noted that the rapid expansion of drone forces raises concerns about potential misuse and the escalation of conflicts.  The availability of advanced UAS technology could increase the likelihood of regional tensions and cross-border conflicts, particularly in conflict-prone areas across the region.

Conclusion

The widespread access to drones and drone manufacturing in the Caucasus and Central Asia reflects the growing importance of unmanned systems in modern warfare and security strategies.  As these countries continue to invest in drone technology, they are reshaping their defense capabilities and regional dynamics.  The influence of the war in Ukraine has undeniably played a critical role in this evolution.  Ukraine’s innovative and successful use of drones, including AI-enabled systems, against Russia’s conventional and expanding drone forces has served as both a model and a motivator for countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia to advance their own drone programs.  As always, war proves to be a powerful laboratory.

The potential for regional escalation due to drone proliferation cannot be ignored, especially with reports of breakaway regions like South Ossetia in Georgia developing their own drones.  This development could exacerbate tensions between Georgia and its separatist territories, raising the risk of conflict.  On the other hand, expanded drone capabilities across the region could have a stabilizing effect by creating a sense of parity among rival nations and bodies. The deterrent effect of mutually assured technological capabilities might help to prevent open conflicts, offering a fragile but valuable balance of power.

Photo: Website of the Kyrgyz President

Sadyr Japarov, President of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, at the opening of the UAV base.

Dr. Eric Rudenshiold is a Senior Fellow for Caspian Affairs at the Caspian Policy Center in Washington, D.C., a former National Security Council Director under Presidents Trump and Biden, and on the faculty at the Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced International Studies.