Emphasizing the critical mineral potential of Ukraine, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia was the focus of the Caspian Policy Center’s (CPC) February 12 webinar.  Four expert analysts presented their views: Dr. Ariel Cohen, Managing Director of the International Tax and Investment Center (ITIC) for Energy, Growth & Security; Pini Althaus, Managing Partner of Cove Capital LLC; Reed Blakemore, Director of Research and Programs of the Global Energy Center at the Atlantic Council; and Dr. Eric Rudenshiold, Senior Fellow at CPC.  The online discussion addressed areas of opportunity for cooperation between the United States and the greater Caspian countries and also Ukraine in securing strategic minerals, as well as in diversifying supply chains away from China.

The webinar launched a new CPC policy report, “A Guide for Policymakers: How to Meet US Strategic Mineral Needs,” that is available online.  “The report provides a significant amount of insight into the potential of the Caspian region in terms of critical minerals,” said CPC President Efgan Nifti in his opening remarks, highlighting that during his testimony in front of the U.S. Senate, newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the role of critical minerals in the U.S.-China strategic competition. “U.S. companies have already invested in the Caspian region’s energy, which flows to the Western markets. This is an important example to build on in the case of critical minerals investments, that would be a strategic utilization of recent geo-economic opportunities in the Greater Caspian region,” Nifti added.

The discussion, moderated by CPC’s Board Chairman Ambassador (ret.) Richard Hoagland, focused on the critical need for a holistic approach to the U.S. supply chain for strategic minerals, particularly in the face of China’s dominance of supplies and refining. “Looking at the three regions in the report, I would say Central Asia, and especially Kazakhstan, are the lead source of a whole range of rare earth minerals, followed by Ukraine, and then followed by South Caucasus,” said Ariel Cohen. Speaking on Chinese dominance of this sector, Cohen stressed that China has virtually controlled the access to and processing of critical minerals since the 1990s, and it does not shy away from using rare earths as a strategic weapon. “We are in a whole new era of geopolitical competition, and I think President Trump gets it,” continued Cohen, adding, “The United States needs streamlined lines of authority with clear interagency guidance on this issue, especially given what Central Asia has to offer.”

With his firm Cove Capital having secured mineral licenses in Kazakhstan in 2023, Pini Althaus offered insights to the mining industry in both the United States and the Caspian region. “I was able to show both during the first Trump administration and the Biden administration, the National Security Council, the Department of State, and the Department of Commerce, what concessions offered by Kazakhstan looked like, and they all pledged their support,” Althaus noted. He added that in April 2024, Cove Capital and Tau-Ken Samruk JSC, Kazakhstan’s state-owned mining company that provides 43% of the world’s uranium, signed an agreement to enter a joint venture to develop the state-owned Akbulak rare-earth deposit that has historic resources, known since the Soviet days. Althaus stated that discussions have also started with the governments of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which is one of the world’s largest exporters of antimony, one of the critical minerals banned by China since December last year. “What we’re hearing across the board from leaders in Central Asia and Africa is the absolute need for them to diversify away from China,” Althaus said, emphasizing the opportunity for the United States to step into these markets. “We also find that China is not establishing a vertically integrated supply chain in these countries. In order for them to be good suppliers of critical minerals to the United States, they need a vertical supply chain - this means downstream processing and battery manufacturing, which is not something China is offering,” he continued. “Central Asia is the lowest hanging fruit right now in terms of ability to source projects that have existing resources, without necessarily having to look at developing green-field projects, and with the governments in the region that are willing, ready, and able to do business with the United States,” Althaus concluded.

Reed Blakemore also spoke of the attention paid by the last two U.S. administrations on issues associated with supply-chain dependency on China for strategic materials. “A big gap has been an ability for the administration to take almost a holistic approach to the entire supply chain,” he said.  Blakemore highlighted three areas of improvement for the new U.S. administration, stating, “Processing and refining is a major bottleneck right now with the effectiveness of our supply chain management….  And I think that warrants some more attention from policymakers in Washington to really adopt the strategies that are going to enable non-Chinese midstream activity, whether that’s locally right next to the mine, or further on downstream,” he added.  

In terms of finding ways to transfer the materials out of the region, Blakemore suggested a similar effort with regard to the Middle Corridor. “How are we going to effectively get these minerals out of the region and to the West?”  Blakemore noted the importance of improving against both the market share and eastward flow of resources that China currently enjoys, but also give project developers downstream customers and greater reliability. 

Dr. Eric Rudenshiold underlined that China’s dominance in critical minerals and the supply chains, their protectionist policies, as well as the weaponization of access to certain minerals is “a direct threat and challenge to the United States and to our global industries that are reliant on these specific resources…. In the first Trump administration, we looked very much at the whole challenge of strategic minerals. A lot has changed in the last four years, including the advent of the Middle Corridor, which is a real game changer for access,” he noted. Dr. Rudenshiold also highlighted that the sanctions on Russia have brought unprecedented levels of change to the Caspian region countries, because they are now looking for alternatives on who they do business with. In regard to policy recommendations, Rudenshiold said: “One of the challenges we have faced from the U.S. government is not having a budget for development and being somewhat timid on engagement.  With a budget you can actually achieve progress in these areas and unleash DFC [the U.S. Development Finance Corporation] that was created by President Trump specifically to go after these kinds of opportunities.” 

“Critical minerals are where the game is going to be played in the coming decade and probably beyond that. That’s a partnership between Central Asia, the Caucasus, and potentially in Ukraine, and the United States that I think is undeniable,” he said in conclusion.