On September 11, the Caspian Policy Center (CPC) hosted a webinar event to discuss the increasing regional partnership and its future trajectory in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Ambassador Javlon Vakhabov, Managing Director of the International Institute for Central Asia in Uzbekistan; Dr. Farid Shafiyev, Chairman of the Center of Analysis for International Relations in Azerbaijan; Dr. Yerkin Tukumov, Director of Kazakhstan’s Institute for Strategic Studies; and Dr. Eric Rudenshiold, Senior Fellow at CPC, joined this online discussion to highlight recent achievements, as well as upcoming challenges and opportunities in both inter- and intra-regional cooperation. 

The discussion, moderated by CPC board member Ambassador (ret.) Richard Hoagland, focused on the significant growth in economic, political, and security cooperation within the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia and the emerging opportunities to expand partnerships eastward to China, south to South Asia, and west to Türkiye, Europe, and the United States. The speakers emphasized that although regional integration once seemed unlikely, shifting global geopolitical dynamics, particularly due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, have now made it a tangible reality. 

Referring to the recent 6th Consultative Meeting of Central Asian states with Azerbaijan attending, Ambassador Javlon Vakhabov highlighted that Uzbekistan's upcoming chairmanship in next year’s meetings will further emphasize the importance of strengthening regional cooperation. Vakhabov also touched on the necessity to create a single regional economic and energy market in order to achieve a breakthrough in the stability and prosperity of the region. “While Russia and China remain critical partners in economics transportation and trade due to geopolitical circumstances, the region is also seeking to diversify ties,” he added. 

Dr. Yerkin Tukumov emphasized the need to diversify not only in terms of traditional exports (i.e. oil and gas), but also in regard to trade partners. “This is the biggest factor for all the leaders of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, to make better connectivity with each other,” he stressed. Tukumov also addressed the region's shifting demographics and emphasized the need to develop a new, overarching regional identity that moves beyond the "post-Soviet" framework.

Dr. Farid Shafiyev noted that despite the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, the Caspian region has still managed to pursue both bilateral and multilateral cooperation initiatives. He mentioned that regional organizations such as the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) have assumed greater economic and political significance “beyond what is perceived as a union of countries with shared history, linguistics, and cultural traditions.” Shafiyev highlighted that Russia remains a significant economic player in the region, and that for this reason, regional countries are cautious about being drawn into the geopolitical clash between the West and the East, prioritizing their own local economies. He advised that external actors engaging with the region should move away from an "us versus them" mentality, instead seeking common ground and recognizing the complexities of the Caspian region. 

Dr. Eric Rudenshiold underlined that Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine brought "tectonic shifts” to the economies of the region, especially in the areas of transport and export routes. Commenting on the emerging cooperation in the region, Rudenshiold said: “You see agency in the region that you just didn’t see before. You see awareness that this is a time in history where countries work together in ways they didn’t before.” Rudenshiold emphasized the growth achieved in regional connectivity, specifically regarding the rise of the Middle Corridor as an alternative to the Northern Corridor that runs through Russia. “The cargo registry between Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia increased from China 14 times in the last year alone … [and] if you look at the growth of ports on the Caspian Sea – the ports in Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan – the expansion of capacities is remarkable.”