In a major breakthrough for Kabul, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) accepted the credentials on August 21 of an ambassador from the Taliban government in Afghanistan.  This appears to be the first official recognition of Afghanistan’s current government, though other countries are coming closer.  A day after UAE’s acknowledgement, Kazakhstan accredited a representative of Afghanistan as a chargé d'affaires, noting the “goal for both countries of expanding trade, economic and humanitarian cooperation.”  But Astana’s announcement falls far short of Abu Dhabi’s official pronouncement.

Engaging with Kabul remains a difficult issue for diplomats, even as Afghanistan’s representatives actively seek recognition for their country.  When China accepted an Ambassador from the Taliban government in December 2023, Beijing was forced to quickly issue a clarification stating that official recognition of the Taliban was not being conferred, after Kabul claimed otherwise.  The need for caution, however, has not deterred all from engaging with the Taliban-led Emirate.

So far, 17 countries currently have embassies in Afghanistan, including all five Central Asian states.  But foreign ministries are quick to point out that the act of establishing embassies with the Taliban government is done largely to facilitate humanitarian assistance and limited trade.  The Central Asians share the concerns of the international community over the Kabul government’s treatment of Afghan women and girls.  In fact, the United Nations maintains that official recognition of the Taliban’s government is “nearly impossible,” with Kabul authorities under investigation by the International Criminal Court for alleged human rights violations against its citizens.

While providing humanitarian aid to the war-ravaged country, the United States and European countries continue a firm line denying formal recognition of, or engagement with, the Taliban.  The June 2024 UN-led “Doha Process” conference on Afghanistan confirmed that Kabul won’t be recognized internationally or enabled to further develop and integrate economically, so long as the Taliban restrict the rights of women and girls.  

In a parallel and ironic snub of its UAE recognition, also on August 21,  the Taliban’s Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice issued an extensive decree that further codified Islamic Sharia law through increased restrictions on personal freedoms, particularly those of women.  Not allowed to look at men they are not related or married to, Afghan women must now, among other requirements, entirely cover their bodies and faces in public with heavy fabric.  

In addition to its shocking human rights record, Afghanistan remains one of the poorest countries in the world, facing persistent economic isolation and deteriorating living standards.  For the Central Asians, engagement with the Taliban-led government is both a humanitarian concern and also an opportunity to develop ties with potential trade partner and gatekeeper to South Asia.  Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev has said that securing the active participation of Afghanistan in interregional relations is crucial to regional stability.  At the June 2024 Collective Security Treaty Organization meeting in Almaty, he emphasized “…the importance of developing trade and economic cooperation with modern Afghanistan.” Astana has provided food and other relief to Kabul over the years, while remaining concerned about the potential threat of terrorism from Afghanistan.  

Uzbekistan has taken a pragmatic approach to relations with Kabul, focusing on providing international assistance and energy provision, as well as constructing potential trade corridors across the country to Pakistan and international sea lanes.  In January 2024, Tashkent and Kabul celebrated a six-fold increase in bilateral trade, as well as agreed to numerous trade agreements to facilitate truck and rail transport to connect South and Central Asia. 

This neighborly engagement is pivotal for Kabul, as many donors suffer Afghan fatigue. Overall, international assistance is on the decline, with the United Kingdom cutting three-quarters of its Afghan aid budget in 2023, paralleling a reduction in German funds from $444 million to $34 million.  With over $7 billion provided by international donors since the Taliban takeover, including over $4 billion in basic humanitarian support, Kabul remains reliant on foreign aid for food, energy, and other necessities. 

Overall, the Taliban leadership faces significant challenges for its long-term prospects and craves international recognition and attention, but so far it does not appear willing to reverse its stance towards women and girls.  While diplomatic and limited economic engagement with Kabul appear to be on the upswing, it is difficult to see many countries following Abu Dhabi’s lead by issuing formal recognition, particularly as Kabul continues to impose further human rights restrictions.  

Absent significant improvements in the Taliban’s governing capabilities, it seems reasonable to conclude that the country’s declining living standards will continue to deteriorate and require even more international attention and assistance.  Though recognition by the UAE and some limited relations with Central Asia and other countries might be making limited progress in working with Kabul, the Taliban’s intransigence to adhere to international standards results in a little-changed impasse with the broader international community and, therefore, little hope for any significant change for the Afghan people.

The Caspian Policy Center issued a special, in-depth report on the status of Afghanistan and its “rocky road to re-emergence” that can be found here.