For those who remember Ukraine in 2014, the scenes of mass protest in Georgia may be remarkably familiar. In 2014, Ukraine’s then President, Victor Yanukovych, postponed an agreement with the European Union in favor of the Russian-backed Eurasian Economic Union. The ensuing months of escalating protests eventually led to Yanukovych fleeing the country and the creation of a new government. This series of events is now referred to as the Euromaidan Revolution. Today’s mass demonstrations in Georgia bear some striking parallels to Ukraine’s decade-ago upheaval.
In late October, Georgia held national elections in which the governing Georgian Dream (GD) party claimed a 54% majority share, an outcome Georgia’s opposition refused to recognize, amid allegations by international observers of election-rigging. But it was not until the November 28 announcement by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze of the government’s postponing Georgia’s application for widely supported EU accession that mass protests began. Tens of thousands of citizens demonstrating have since repeatedly shut down central Tbilisi every night since November 28.
These have been among the most intense protests and street battles between riot police and demonstrators Georgia has witnessed since the 2004 Rose Revolution. Police have used water cannons, tear gas, and pepper spray to disperse protests, amidst allegations of brutality. Protesters have utilized fireworks against police and government buildings, lit street fires, and blocked off sections of major streets. By far the largest demonstrations have been held in Tbilisi, but there have also been sizable protests in Batumi, the second-largest city in Georgia, where protesters briefly shut down a government broadcasting studio, as well as in smaller regional cities as anti-government protests spread across the country.
GD elites have largely defended government actions, as Prime Minister Kobakhidze blamed protesters for outbreaks of violence, asserting that “Responsibility for... violent manifestation rests with these European politicians and bureaucrats, and their local agents, the fifth column, represented by four [opposition] parties.” Similar sentiments that have been echoed by other GD elites. Seven Georgian ambassadors have resigned since the beginning of the protests, including Georgia’s ambassador to the United States.
Thousands of civil servants and public-sector teachers have signed onto statements showing solidarity with the protesters and committing to European integration. Minister Irakli Garibashvili had reportedly left the party, but Georgian Dream has denied these rumors.
Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili, the opposition’s de-facto leader, has been an active presence on the street. Photos circulating online show her face to face with riot-police. The opposition – composed of Zourabichvili and the four opposition blocks – have stipulated a joint position that the opposition won the October elections, that the government call for new elections and undergo reforms to improve the electoral environment, including the removal of the Foreign Agents law that GD passed in March that effectively restricted the work of civil-society organizations across the country. Zourabichvili has also formed a coordination council to act as the political arm of the protests’. Starting on December 4, Georgian authorities began raiding the homes and arresting opposition members – including the leadership of major political blocks.
While protests have numbered in the tens of thousands, questions remain as to whether demonstrators will achieve their objectives of forcing new elections. Mass up-risings or “color revolutions” in Georgia and other post-Soviet republics have successfully forced out governments in the past. GD elites regularly reference “Euromaidan” when discussing the threat of current protests.
In the case of Ukraine’s Euromaidan revolution, three months of violent protests took place before President Yanukovych's abdication, while Georgia’s 2004 Rose Revolution lasted close to a month before the collapse of Eduard Shevardnadze's government. After only a short period so far, it remains to be seen if current protests can keep up momentum before the government agrees to meet protesters’ demands.
Additionally, the success of Ukraine’s Euromaidan was preceded by public opinion galvanizing against the government after police use of live ammunition that killed protesters, and significant numbers of parliamentary defections from President Yanukovych, which allowed for the removal of anti-protest legislation and Yanukovych's ouster. If similar kinds of events occur in Georgia, they might foreshadow the success of current anti-GD protests.
Another factor worth paying close attention to is how pro-GD elements of Georgian society react to the protest. In the case of Ukraine in 2014, anti-Euromaidan groups protested on the streets as well. Polling indicates that likely about a third of Georgians are committed supporters of GD and might mobilize to counter the protests or hold demonstrations of their own in the coming weeks, if the opposition can maintain its momentum.
Georgia’s opposition has staked out an ambitious position. New elections and a reversal of key policies are prospects that the ruling GD party is unlikely to willingly accept or to show any reconciliatory gestures. Georgia seems to have entered a Euromaidan-style scenario, a protracted face-off between a government and opposition in which there is little room for compromise. Historically, this scenario will see both sides escalate their tactics and their willingness to use violence. As truly mass demonstrations only began a few days ago, which side is likely to prevail remains an open question.
