As the year 2025 draws to a close, there are now fewer than five years remaining to meet the Paris Agreement’s 2030 emission targets. With the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, countries of the Caspian region are making varied progress toward decarbonization. 

Central Asia is among the region’s most vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Rising temperatures, shrinking glaciers, and increasing water scarcity threaten agriculture, energy generation, and public health across the region. The frequency of droughts and extreme weather events is projected to intensify and pose serious risks to social welfare and regional stability if mitigation measures are not strengthened. 

A Glance at the Environment  

Central Asia is facing an accelerating environmental crisis as glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir mountains melt at unprecedented rates of four times faster than the global average, which is threatening the rivers, reservoirs, agriculture, and hydropower that sustain the region. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are already experiencing extreme heat, droughts, floods, and erratic rainfall, reducing crop yields, undermining livelihoods, and triggering water and energy shortages. Agriculture, employing up to a third of the workforce, is particularly vulnerable, with rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns driving crop failures, livestock losses, and labor stresses. 

Although governments have implemented irrigation reforms, water-sharing agreements, crop diversification, and renewable energy initiatives, these measures only present the redistribution of water. But they cannot replace the mountain glaciers that are disappearing. Climate warming, air pollution, and methane emissions from fossil fuels, coal, and agriculture accelerate glacial melts, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of temperature rise.  

The Caucasus glaciers have receded more than 45% over the last 120 years. However, most concerning is that  23% of that loss happened in the last 20 years, indicating extreme melting acceleration.  

Without urgent, coordinated action, Central Asia faces worsening droughts, food insecurity, environmental migration, and geopolitical tensions. While regional cooperation and infrastructure modernization are necessary, the survival of the region’s ecosystems, agriculture, and hydropower ultimately depends on halting glacier loss. The fundamental challenge is not water management alone, but the urgent need to address the root cause: climate warming. 

Focus on Rrenewable-Energy Sector 

The renewable energy sector, however, experienced mixed trends this year. From Kazakhstan’s sharp U-turn on its sustainability narrative to the steady signing of new agreements to purchase or develop renewable energy across the region, the landscape continues to shift. Overall, the region’s energy security remains vulnerable to both traditional and non-traditional external pressures: the former represented by Russia’s disruptive actions amid the war in Ukraine, and the latter driven by climate change and broader environmental concerns. 

Bet on Nuclear and Hydro energy 

For Central Asia and the Caucasus, renewables present a difficult task of introducing new energy sources into established systems based on fossil-fuel-led infrastructure, institutionalization, and revenues. Hydro and nuclear power seem to be chosen as a middle-ground solution to reconcile fiscal and environmental priorities. Considering Kazakhstan’s and Uzbekistan’s substantial uranium reserves, as well as Kyrgyzstan’s and Tajikistan’s mountain-based water resources, each country appears to be betting on its own comparative advantages.  

Last year, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan overcame their historical aversion to nuclear energy by announcing construction of nuclear power plants (NPP). After the national referendum on nuclear energy in Kazakhstan in October 2024, the government announced Russia’s Rosatom and China’s CNNC (China National Nuclear Corporation) will build first, second, and third NPPs in the country. Uzbekistan, also in cooperation with Rosatom, is implementing a project to build a nuclear power plant with two large and two small reactors.  

The main construction contractor, Rosatom, however, raises questions on its ability to sustain massive nuclear projects, given the geopolitical dynamics and economic constraints the country is currently involved in. Moscow has already found itself unable to back its agreed low-interest financing for Kazakhstan’s combined heat and power plant (CHPP), leaving Astana using domestic resources without seeking external assistance. Uzbekistan’s nuclear cooperation expansion with China provoked the same doubts on Rosatom’s overall feasibility. To a bigger concern, Rosatom has announced the need for state support to cover the cost of borrowed funds and "provision of special resources of a special value."  

Clean Energy and China’s Expanding Role 

Nevertheless, Central Asia and the South Caucasus are concurrently exploring renewable energy development through major solar, wind, green hydrogen, and low-carbon infrastructure projects financed by global partners including China, the EU, the World Bank, the UAE, Türkiye, and South Korea. Azerbaijan is advancing solar and regional green corridors; Kazakhstan is expanding large-scale wind, hydrogen, and eco-settlement projects; at the same time Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are securing multi-billion-dollar investments in hydropower, solar, EV infrastructure, battery storage, and green aviation fuel production. Tajikistan is enhancing its bid for AI policy and plans to construct its first data center powered fully from hydropower energy. Nuclear cooperation is also expanding through Kazakhstan’s uranium exports and Uzbekistan’s talks with China. Across the region, governments and investors are positioning renewable energy and green technologies as central to energy security, export diversification, and climate commitments toward 2030–2060 targets. 

Renewable energy appears to be the best alternative to fossil fuels, which continue to heavily pollute cities and regions across Central Asia. At the same time, the region holds enormous potential for diversifying and strengthening its energy self-reliance, thanks to its large deposits of rare earth minerals.  

China dominates the global supply chains for many critical minerals and is also a leading exporter of technologies and equipment for renewable energy plants. As the world’s manufacturing hub, China’s renewable-energy technology capacity could accelerate the adoption of renewables among its neighboring states. Since China is the largest trade and investment partner for most countries in the region, the green energy sector has become an integral part of its broader bilateral cooperation with Central Asian and Caucasus states. This aligns with China’s global connectivity agenda that prioritizes energy, trade, and transport infrastructure across the Global Majority.