Early polling results reveal that Kyrgyzstan’s pro-government parties achieved a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections held on November 28, 2021. The pro-presidential parties obtained over 70 percent of the vote, while the main opposition parties, Alliance and Butun Kyrgyzstan, drew only 8 percent and 7 percent respectively. Other opposition parties did not reach the 5 percent threshold to sit in Parliament. By the end of election day, 90 percent of submitted ballots were counted. International observers suggested that the results of Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections would serve as an indicator of public support for Japarov’s tenure as president after he assumed power during the turmoil sparked by last year’s parliamentary elections. Nevertheless, Japarov has, so far, continued the ruling practices that resulted in the ousting of three former Kyrgyz presidents. In addition, infrastructure concerns and regional energy shortages before the winter months could shift the narrative against Japarov by early next year.

The international community anxiously awaited the results of Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections. In October 2020, preliminary parliamentary election results granted former President Sooronbay Jeenbekov and his political allies a substantial victory. However, soon after the election, a series of protests and jail breaks caused the political situation in the Central Asian country to deteriorate rapidly. Demonstrators rallied against alleged vote buying and corruption, which they argued had handed Jeenbekov his victory. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) released a report on the accusations of vote buying, unaddressed accusations that Former President Jeenbekov had fomented disinformation campaigns, and the perception that it illegally disenfranchised voters, all of which led to the destructive protests that erupted nationwide. On October 6, 2020, the Central Election Commission annulled the parliamentary election results. One week later, President Jeenbekov resigned.

Amidst the chaos of the October 2020 revolution, Sadyr Japarov was freed from prison where he had been serving an 11.5-year sentence for kidnapping a local official. He quickly became the interim prime minister shortly after the High Court acquitted him on all charges. Since his ascension to power, Japarov has cemented his position in the higher echelons of Kyrgyzstan’s government. In January 2021, he won the presidential election with 79 percent of the electorate casting their ballots in his favor. Since then, he signed Kyrgyzstan’s fourth constitution into law in April 2021, after nearly 80 percent of voters supported its implementation during a referendum, although only 39 percent of eligible Kyrgyz voters participated. The new constitution consolidated power in the executive branch. According to the 2021 constitution, the president was given the authority to appoint nearly all judges and law-enforcement officials in the country. Moreover, it shrank Kyrgyzstan’s parliament from 120 lawmakers to 90.

The 2021 parliamentary elections were the first under the new constitution. The 2020 parliamentary elections had precipitated weeks of political uncertainty and unrest, and this year’s elections provoked similar outcries of voting irregularities and corruption. But it remains to be seen what comes next. About 100 supporters from four opposition parties rallied outside the Central Election Commission offices in Bishkek to protest the election results. A candidate from the opposition Ata-Meken party, Bektur Asanov, claimed that “votes were stolen from [our party]” after the election commission’s website suffered “technical problems” that opposition parties allege allocated additional votes to parties supporting President Japarov. In addition, turnout for the elections was low: only 32 percent of the electorate cast their ballots. President Japarov agreed to a recount to mitigate tensions.

The November 2021 parliamentary election results are hardly surprising to international observers. President Japarov has dedicated his tenure to securing his position as Kyrgyzstan’s head of state and surrounding himself with close political allies, strategies employed by his three predecessors. However, if President Japarov hopes to avoid the same fate as Kyrgyzstan’s former presidents, his administration must address mounting concerns over a regional energy crisis, a growing economic dependence on China, and anger over election irregularities and corruption. President Askar Akayev was ousted from power in the 2005 Tulip Revolution that arose from frustrations over corruption allegations within his ranks. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was removed due to mass protests against his presidency. Most recently, President Jeenbekov fled the country soon after Japarov’s inauguration. Kyrgyzstan has faced a politically active electorate and an empowered population that has contributed to the removal of three former presidents.