Cementing a durable peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the subject of much international attention. The process has seen slow but steady progress despite periods of frustration, stagnation, and even moments of violence. There remain, however, legal and domestic hurdles for Armenia which revolve around the country’s foundational post-independence documents.
On June 6 Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev re-iterated his longstanding position that Armenia change its constitution, stating that without such a shift establishing peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan would be “impossible.” While Armenia’s foreign ministry responded to Aliyev by accusing Baku in meddling in Armenia’s domestic affairs, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seems interested in resolving issues surrounding Armenia’s current constitution.
The Constitution of the Republic of Armenia opens by stating that “The Armenian people — taking as a basis the fundamental principles of the Armenian Statehood and the nation-wide objectives enshrined in the Declaration on the Independence of Armenia" have now adopted the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia. This opening line, seemingly banal at an initial read, has become a focus of contestation between Baku and Yerevan.
Armenia’s Declaration of Independence was passed in 1990, before the final collapse of the USSR and two years into the first Nagorno-Karabakh war. The declaration sets the 1988 "Reunification of the Armenian SSR and the Mountainous Region of Karabakh" passed by the Soviet Armenian Supreme Council and the Soviet era council of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) as one of the foundational legal principles of the Armenian Declaration of Independence. This 1988 joint act provided the basis in Armenian law for the NKAO seceding from the Azerbaijani Soviet Social Republic, and joining Armenia’s, all as the USSR crumbled around them.
Some have argued therefore, that the Armenian constitution, by way of these two separate other documents, constitutes a legal claim to territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev appears to agree, and for several months now has made amending Armenia’s constitution to remove the reference to the declaration of independence a central demand of the peace process. This is a demand Prime Minister Pashinyan has been responsive to and he has called for a new Armenian constitution since January, arguing a new constitution is necessary to avoiding future conflict. In June, Pashinyan ordered the drafting of the new constitution.
The question then becomes one of a lengthy legal processes and public opinion. In order to alter the constriction, Pashinyan will have to put forward a referendum on the issue. For any alternation to the constitution to pass it will require majority support with at least 25% of Armenia’s population voting in the referendum.
Polling from December of 2023, the most recent available, is ambiguous on what the results of such a referendum might be. Pashinyan’s overall approach to Karabakh has been controversial, with 36% reporting that the surrender of Karabakh and ensuing exodus of ethnic Armenians was the first or second greatest failure of the Pashinyan government.
Recent months have seen large scale demonstrations against Pashinyan’s government, especially in regard to the Tavush region, sections of which Armenia handed over to Azerbaijan in line with the ongoing border delamination process based on the Soviet-era borders. The Archbishop Bagrat Galstanian, the protests’ central leader, has stated he will challenge Pashinyan for the Prime Ministership in 2026 – although he has not held a major public event since demanding in May that Pashinyan announce his resignation within an hour. Additionally, the current constitution bars him from holding the office due to Galstanian’s Canadian citizenship.
Overall, however, there are signs that Armenia may be somewhat split between doves and hawks. A combined 31% view establishing peace or better foreign policy position as the first or second most important goal of the government compared to 32% who say the first or second priority should be strengthening the army or borders of Armenia.
Yerevan has made no concrete plans for a referendum, but the constitutional issue does not appear to be going away. Considering this, for a lasting legal normalization between Yerevan and Baku, a constitutional referendum might be necessary. This would bring the peace process into what are so far untested waters, domestic Armenian politics and opinion.
